Hawaii’s 2024 House elections test voter loyalty to Democrat party’s centrist wing.

Hawaii’s 2024 House Elections: A Battle for the Soul of the Democratic Party

The upcoming 2024 House elections in Hawaii will be a pivotal moment to determine the direction of the state’s Democratic Party. Despite the Democrats’ stronghold on power, Hawaii stands out as a place where moderate Democrats have held sway. However, the question remains whether progressives will be able to make a breakthrough and challenge the centrist wing.

The Unique Political Landscape of Hawaii

Hawaii has long been a Democratic stronghold, with Republicans failing to win a federal election since 2010. The Cook Political Report categorizes both Hawaiian House seats as “solid Democrat.” This dominance has remained largely unchanged for the past fifty years.

One of the main reasons for the centrist nature of the Hawaiian Democratic Party is the virtual disappearance of the state’s Republican Party. Many Republicans, faced with little chance of electoral success, have switched their party affiliation to Democrat. This shift has pushed the party in a more moderate direction.

“Progressives have been eager to increase their influence, but they face a challenge in Hawaii’s Democratic Party, which has been a big tent party with economically liberal, union-friendly, and socially moderate positions,” explained Republican strategist Adolfo Franco. “The decline of the GOP in Hawaii is largely due to many Republicans registering as Democrats, and even state-level officeholders changing parties and finding success as Democrats.”

Despite these dynamics, Franco believes it will be extremely difficult for Republicans to win House seats in Hawaii in 2024.

The Role of Moderates in Hawaii’s Democratic Party

While the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is present in Hawaii, the state’s diverse Democratic Party makes it challenging for progressives to dominate the party as they do in other states. Hawaii’s voters are often more focused on local issues rather than those that matter in Washington, D.C.

Two moderate Democrats, Rep. Ed Case (D-HI) and Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-HI), are expected to secure their House seats in the 2024 elections.

Rep. Ed Case, known for his centrist approach, has held his seat since 2018 and is considered one of the most moderate Democrats in Congress. He was part of the “Unbreakable Nine,” a group of moderate Democrats who posed a threat to President Biden’s ambitious $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” bill in 2021. Case’s strong performance in the 2022 midterm primary, winning by a wide margin of 83% to 17%, solidifies his position for the upcoming elections.

Rep. Jill Tokuda, who defeated a progressive star in 2022, is seeking reelection in 2024. She unseated former Rep. Patrick Branco, an outspoken progressive, and won with a comfortable margin of 58% to 25%. The Cook Political Report predicts an easy victory for Tokuda in 2024, describing it as “an island breeze.”

As the 2024 House elections approach, all eyes will be on Hawaii to see if the state’s Democratic Party remains firmly centrist or if progressives can make a breakthrough and reshape the political landscape.

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