Why Biden’s bad polls one year out from Election Day might not give him time to improve
President Joe Biden has had a string of bad polls, with the latest showing him losing ground to former President Donald Trump in several battleground states and hitting a new low approval rating.
With Sunday’s NBC News poll showing Trump taking the lead in 2024 and Biden receiving a 40% approval rating, some Democrats are worried that the president will not be able to turn around enough support before the general election next November, while others have brushed off concerns about polling as too early to make a difference.
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New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn said polling results are “serious but not predictive.”
“The voters know these candidates well, so what they say is worth taking seriously,” Cohn said on Sunday. “Indeed, campaigns taking it seriously may even contribute to changing the numbers over the next years.”
Biden, who turns 81 on Monday, has faced everything from criticism to concern from Republicans and members of his own party over his ability to serve in the White House, particularly because he would be 86 at the end of his second term.
The recent polling numbers are not offering Democrats much comfort.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that two-thirds of Democrats believe Biden is too old to be president, the latest numbers following a string of incidents, including trips and falls, malapropisms, and losing his train of thought. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll also found that Trump is leading Biden in five battleground states, as well as making inroads among black and young voters, two voting blocs that were crucial to Biden’s win in 2020.
Some Democrats believe that the writing is on the wall and Biden should drop out before Trump secures enough of a lead to win in 2024. However, Biden’s campaign and other close Democratic allies have said polls are meaningless this far out from the Nov. 5, 2024, election.
Still, it may be too late to bring up Biden’s popularity decline. The only incumbent within the last 80 years to trail an opponent one year out from the election was Trump, falling to Biden by about 10 points in November 2019, according to Axios. Trump has also led Biden in 17 national surveys this election cycle so far after leading none of them in the 2020 cycle.
Democrats are particularly worried about Biden’s ability to make up for lost time with key voting blocs such as black and Muslim voters.
A nationwide poll of Arab American voters found that support for Biden has dropped dramatically from 59% to 17%, a decrease of 42 percentage points from 2020, since the president has pledged unwavering support to Israel in its battle against Hamas that began in October.
Democrats have also been concerned for some time that Biden has a “huge problem” with black voters heading into 2024. The New York Times/Siena College poll found that 22% of black voters in six of the most important battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — said they would vote for Trump in next year’s election, compared to the 8% that supported Trump in 2020.
Several black voters have said that the state of the economy is what is turning them away from Biden, while other black voters are unimpressed with both Trump and Biden and may not even show up to the polls in 2024. For Muslim Americans, Democratic leaders of the voting bloc in several key battleground states have warned that they may lean Republican if Biden continues to ignore Muslim voices.
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In the weeks after the Hamas attacks, the president has called for humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza affected by the war. Still, his support among Muslim Americans is slumping, particularly in Michigan.
Vice President Kamala Harris said on CNN on Sunday that there is “no doubt” that she and the president will have to “earn our reelect.” However, she has brushed off concerns about Biden’s age in the past few months, stating that Biden is “very much alive” and would be running for reelection. Some critics are also worried that a Biden departure would be Harris’s ascendance as the Democratic nominee in 2024.
How have the recent poll results impacted concerns about Biden’s chances in the 2024 election?
L polls conducted in 2021, further adding to concerns about Biden’s chances in 2024.
The recent string of bad polls for President Joe Biden has raised significant concerns within the Democratic Party. According to the latest NBC News poll, Biden’s approval rating has hit a new low of 40%. This, combined with the fact that former President Donald Trump is gaining ground in several battleground states, has led to worries about Biden’s ability to secure enough support before the next general election in November.
In response to these poll results, some Democrats have expressed concern that Biden may not be able to turn around his declining approval rating in time for the 2024 election. Others, however, have dismissed these concerns, arguing that it is too early to make judgments based on polling data.
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the New York Times, offered a nuanced perspective on the matter. He acknowledged that the polling results should be taken seriously because voters are familiar with both candidates. Additionally, Cohn suggested that campaigns taking the polling data seriously could potentially contribute to changing numbers over the coming years.
One of the main concerns surrounding Biden’s presidency is his age. As he turns 81 on Monday, there have been increasing criticisms and concerns from both Republicans and members of his own party about his ability to effectively serve as President, especially considering that he would be 86 at the end of a potential second term.
The recent polling numbers have not provided much comfort to Democrats. A recent Wall Street Journal poll revealed that two-thirds of Democrats believe Biden is too old to be president. These numbers come in the wake of various incidents, such as trips and falls, malapropisms, and instances where Biden appeared to lose his train of thought.
Moreover, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump is currently leading Biden in five battleground states. This is a significant concern as these states, along with the support from black and young voters, were crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020.
In light of these unfavorable poll results, some Democrats argue that it may be wise for Biden to drop out of the race before Trump secures a strong lead for the 2024 election. However, Biden’s campaign and close Democratic allies have dismissed the significance of early polling, stating that it is too far in advance to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Nevertheless, there is a growing sense that Biden’s popularity is on the decline and that it may be too late to address this trajectory. According to Axios, the only incumbent president within the last 80 years to trail an opponent one year before the election was Donald Trump in 2019, when he was behind Biden by approximately 10 points. To compound matters, Trump has consistently led Biden in 17 national polls conducted in 2021, further exacerbating concerns about Biden’s chances in 2024.
In summary, President Joe Biden’s recent string of bad polls, including a new low approval rating and losing ground to former President Donald Trump in battleground states, has raised significant concerns within the Democratic Party. While some dismiss these polls as too early to be meaningful, others urge Biden to address his declining popularity before it’s too late. As the 2024 election approaches, it remains to be seen whether Biden can regain the support necessary to secure a second term in office.
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