US-China relations are in a very bad state.

US-China Relations: An Interview with Goldman Sachs

How Bad are US-China Relations Today?

Allison Nathan, Senior Strategist in Global Macro Research at Goldman Sachs, asks Graham Allison to describe US-China relations today. In one word, bad. In many words, very bad. Unfortunately, the relationship has deteriorated to its worst state since Henry Kissinger and Zhou Enlai began their conversations to reestablish relations between the two countries over fifty years ago.

How Did We End Up Here?

Graham Allison explains that his book, Destined for War, predicted this rise in hostility. He says that when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace a major ruling power, both become increasingly hostile towards the other. The last 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. In 12 of those cases, the outcome was war. Nobody can deny that China is a meteoric rising power.

What Do the US and China Most Misunderstand About Each Other?

They both seem to misunderstand the realities of domestic politics that shape policy in the other country. A vivid example was each side’s lack of understanding around the balloon incident earlier this year.

What Have We Learned from China’s Response to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

China’s support for Russia in the war with Ukraine has revealed an uncomfortable truth that most US observers are still unwilling to recognize: Xi has built with Russia the most consequential undeclared alliance in the world.

Are US-China Relations Poised to Deteriorate into a New Cold War?

Many Americans, and even some US government officials, seem to believe China is the new Soviet Union in what will be a new Cold War. But it is important to remember that the Soviet Union was an expansive revolutionary power that was pursuing global transformation.

What About a Hot War?

Graham Allison does not believe for a moment that a hot war between the US and China is inevitable.

What’s Your Advice for Policymakers?

When Graham Allison speaks privately to policymakers on both sides, he poses a question: Which should rational leaders in Beijing and Washington find more compelling: the incentives to compete, or the incentives to cooperate?