Solidifies Electoral Advantage in Key State

Former President Donald Trump has firmed up his thin lead in the key battleground states likely to determine the fall presidential election.

In the latest collection of surveys released by Emerson College Polling/Hill, Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The Republican, declared the outright national poll leader by CNN over the weekend, is pulling independent voters away from Biden in many of those states, the new survey said.

While Trump has kept his edge, and that’s meaningful, it’s as close as it can be in some states. The poll director said the differences in all are within the margin of error.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and the Hill started tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The share of undecided voters has reduced, and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

The numbers are below.

— Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 44%.

— Georgia: Trump 47%, Biden 44%.

— Michigan: Trump 45%, Biden 44%.

— Nevada: Trump 45%, Biden 44%.

— North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 42%.

— Pennsylvania: Trump 47%, Biden 45%.

— Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Biden 45%.

As the general election gets closer, it is the polling in the battleground states that will be more of an indicator of the final winner than national polls. Those seven states have determined the past two elections.

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The focus has recently turned to independent voters, and they are starting to break for their favored candidates. “Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball said.

When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan, Kimball said.