The GOP field has a Trump dilemma that the latest indictment has only made worse

A Week After Trump’s Indictment, the Republican Presidential Field Faces a Dilemma

A week after former President Donald Trump’s federal indictment, the rest of the 2024 Republican presidential field finds themselves in a challenging position. They must navigate the delicate balance of addressing Trump’s handling of classified documents without alienating his loyal base, who believe the federal government has been weaponized against conservatives.

On one hand, criticizing Trump’s conduct and the Justice Department’s prosecution risks entering the Hatfields vs. McCoys feud that has dominated politics since 2015. On the other hand, failing to seize the opportunity presented by Trump’s indictment means conceding the game to the GOP front-runner before it even begins.

Pence and Haley: A Delicate Dance

Former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley have attempted to strike a delicate balance. They have criticized both the Justice Department’s prosecution of Trump and his behavior while in office. Haley, in particular, has used the second criminal case against Trump to argue for moving beyond his “endless drama.”

However, polling and focus groups indicate that even some current Trump supporters have reservations about his temperament and tweets. They would prefer the 2024 elections to focus on President Joe Biden. This line of attack reinforces doubts about Trump and his leadership, potentially impacting the Iowa caucuses.

Trump’s Clear-Cut Argument

While nuanced arguments may resonate with some voters, Trump’s clear-cut argument that he is being targeted by the federal government under his likely general election opponent carries weight. Many Republicans believe Trump has been treated unfairly since 2015, and his strongest supporters have low trust in institutions that attempt to differentiate his handling of sensitive information from that of other politicians.

Trump’s argument may not hold up in a court of law, but it could sway public opinion, especially among the voters who will decide the next GOP presidential nominee.

The Challenges for Other Candidates

Republican candidates who have criticized Trump’s handling of classified documents, such as Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, are polling in the low single digits. Only Gov. Ron DeSantis has double-digit support, positioning himself as Trump’s disciplined successor.

However, DeSantis still trails Trump by a significant margin in national polls. Candidates polling at 5% or less must take risks and hope for unpredictable events to shake up the race. Without a clear path to victory, they need to convince primary voters that they are superior to the front-runner in terms of electability and availability.

Running Against Trump

The non-Trump candidates for the Republican nomination must run against Trump, emphasizing their own abilities and presenting themselves as alternatives to the front-runner. However, this does not guarantee victory. Trump’s simpler argument and reinvigorated campaign following the charges make him a formidable opponent.

Nevertheless, as more indictments and polls showing a growing Biden lead emerge, Republicans may organically decide to move on from Trump. This could happen without his GOP rivals having to do much more than position themselves to benefit from the inevitable shift in support.

Quietly Trump-skeptical Republicans have been waiting for this outcome for years, and it may finally come to fruition as the political landscape continues to evolve.