Ukraine’s Air War Intensifies.

Why Russia’s Air Force is Absent from the Fight in Ukraine

For the past year, one of the central mysteries of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the absence of the Kremlin’s air force. However, as Ukraine prepares to mount a counteroffensive, Western and Ukrainian officials are beginning to worry that Kyiv’s tenuous air parity might not hold.

Why is Russia’s Air Force Absent?

Despite Russia’s Aerospace Forces outnumbering Ukraine’s, they are not capable of outmatching Ukraine’s jets based on superior radar and missile technology. Russian air power has not played a major role in tilting the tide of the war, since the Kremlin’s pilots aren’t trained to execute large-scale operations with different kinds of aircraft.

Russian aircraft have never been a reliable source of close air support for advancing Russian troops since the Kremlin’s invasion began more than a year ago. Instead, Ukrainian officials believe Russia is tucking its fighters and bombers into a defensive shell by only flying over Russian-controlled areas in the Donbas region or flying 100 to 200 miles from Ukraine’s borders, sometimes as far away as the Caspian Sea, to take potshots into populated areas.

What are the Fears of a Changing Tide in the Air War?

Classified assessments have now leaked from Discord servers into the public domain, that Ukraine could run out of air defense ammunition as soon as this month. Kyiv can’t resupply Soviet-era S-300 missile systems that rely on Russian air defense projectiles, and the U.S.-produced Patriot air defense systems and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, the same batteries that defend Washington, D.C., from aerial attack, arriving now on the ground in Ukraine will only be a partial solution.

The United States can only produce about 300 Patriot missiles per year, far less than the pace of Russian airstrikes, which have picked up again as the Kremlin has upped the production of smart guidance kits used to provide precision guidance for otherwise “dumb” unguided bombs to strike at cities, Ukrainian officials believe.

What is the Solution?

Ukraine has long had more available pilots than jets, even after Poland delivered eight Soviet-era MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, and Slovakia four, with nine more on the way. The surfeit of pilots, and shortage of airframes, has driven Ukraine’s repeated request for F-16 fighter jets, according to the Ukrainian military official who spoke on condition of anonymity, as well as a requirement to replenish the air defense magazine.

President Biden temporarily ruled out sending F-16s to Ukraine in February, with the U.S. administration citing the long lead time to train Ukrainian pilots, but U.S. officials haven’t completely dismissed the possibility of sending the jets.

For now, Ukraine will have to hold out, with the Pentagon near the end of off-the-shelf weapons support it can provide to Kyiv, and the Biden administration still reluctant to provide advanced fighter jets that could help level the playing field.