Nearly 70% of likely Republican Texas voters said the convention will have a great deal or some impact, compared with roughly 30% of Republicans who said it wouldn’t have much of an impact or would have no impact.

In contrast, just 36% of Texas Democrats said the convention would have a great deal or some impact in November.

More relevant for the GOP is that low-propensity voters — the coalition that helped boost Trump back to the White House — say the convention won’t affect the midterm elections. Sixty-eight percent of voters who didn’t participate in Republican or Democratic primaries said the convention would not have much of an impact or no impact at all.

The results shared exclusively with Washington Examiner come before the full poll is released on Wednesday to the general public.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance are the keynote speakers for the two-night convention scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.

Republicans are defending their slim majority in the House and Senate this November, as Democrats hope to snatch back control of at least one chamber of Congress. But they face headwinds as the Iran war has crossed the six-month mark, and gas prices have not returned to prewar levels.

In Texas, a marquee Senate battle between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico will be a barometer of whether Democrats have any modicum of a chance of flipping the Senate.

Republicans say that Talarico’s past comments, such as saying that God is nonbinary, prove he is unfit to succeed Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as the Lone Star State’s next senator.

“James Talarico has extreme positions, such as declaring there are six genders,” said Anthony Holm, a veteran GOP strategist and former Paxton spokesman. “And an earned media event, such as a midterm convention, is going to shine a spotlight on Talarico’s beliefs that are so far outside the norm it will be the beginning of the end of the Talarico campaign.”

Talarico later said he “missed the mark” in his past comments in an interview with CBS News in May. “There are some statements that I’ve made that I certainly regret,” he said at the time. “There are statements that I’ve made where I’ve missed the mark. I’ll be the first to admit that. But Ken Paxton is intentionally clipping my cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption.”

Polling from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project showed 42% of Texans preferred Talarico to the 39% who preferred Paxton. Talarico also has a sizable fundraising advantage over Paxton. The latest Federal Election Commission reports showed Talarico raising $31.6 million compared to Paxton’s $9.3 million in the second quarter of 2026.

RNC Chairman Joe Gruters has said the convention will be a “Trump-a-palooza” themed event, but Republicans have privately fretted over the high cost of attendance, with some states charging tens of thousands of dollars for special access, and that the event will compete with opening night of the NFL season.

National Republicans, however, remain confident that the convention will boost the party in November.

“The Midterm Convention is an opportunity for Republicans to rally behind President Trump’s policies that have cut taxes, lowered drug costs, and secured our border,” RNC national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement. “Republicans will continue to deliver results, but Democrats will revert to open borders, abolishing the police, and implementing the radical policies voters already rejected. There’s a choice between commonsense or crazy, and we need every Republican to vote to protect our commonsense majorities.”

A local Republican also told the Washington Examiner that they believe the convention will help the GOP as it tries to overcome Trump’s sagging approval numbers and voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

“I do believe the midterm convention can have a meaningful impact, particularly when it comes to motivating Republican activists and energizing the grassroots,” said Joseph Vargas, a Texas GOP strategist and founder of the Keep Texas Red podcast.

“Conventions themselves do not automatically translate into votes, but they can inspire and motivate people who are already politically engaged,” Vargas also said. “That inspiration can then turn into energetic blockwalking, voter outreach, volunteer recruitment, and better organization at the local level. When that happens, it can absolutely influence voter turnout.”

Hans Klingler, a former spokesman for the Texas GOP, told the Washington Examiner that “No one does a Republican convention like Texas Republicans.”

WHAT TO KNOW AS TRUMP AND VANCE HEADLINE FIRST-EVER GOP MIDTERM CONVENTION

“I’ve been fortunate enough with 40 years in Texas politics to be a part of and help lead several of them. Adding President Trump and his team to that already successful track record will put it on steroids,” Klingler added. “Every candidate and office holder in Texas knows what this mid-cycle convention will do to our base … from Paxton to the local candidates …they are going to be fired up to get out and make sure Republicans win on Nov. 3.”

The Overton Insights and Texas Public Policy Foundation poll was conducted Aug. 24 to Aug. 26 and has a plus or minus 2.9% margin of error. The survey sampled 1,167 likely Texas voters.