NATO’s tiny allies assert diplomatic power in Ukraine’s alliance journey.

U.S. and European Officials Debate Ukraine’s Path to NATO Membership

U.S. and European officials are engaged in a crucial debate on how to signal Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership without provoking Russia. This discussion has been ongoing for months and is now reaching its final stages as NATO defense ministers gather in Brussels.

“There is a group of countries which say that Ukraine really deserves to be NATO, and this is a matter of formulation — in what wording [we use to] put that in the communique,” a senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “Many defense ministers stated that we have to confirm as much as we can, politically, that Ukraine belongs to NATO.”

This chorus of support for Ukraine’s NATO membership has been growing, particularly among countries like Lithuania that are most concerned about Russian aggression. However, larger powers like Germany and the U.S. remain cautious, while the Baltic countries and Poland are pushing for a quicker path to NATO for Ukraine.

At the heart of the debate is the need to improve on the 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration, which promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual NATO membership but failed to make practical progress due to fears of Russian backlash.

“They deserve to be presented with a very quick path to NATO,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The Biden administration has been trying to navigate this debate by focusing on supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, rather than explicitly endorsing NATO membership. However, the tide seems to be turning, with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak publicly expressing support for Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Despite these differing views, Ambassador Julianne Smith, who leads the U.S. mission to NATO, emphasized that there is ongoing conversation and exploration of various options for describing Ukraine’s membership aspirations.

The recent meeting in Oslo, Norway, further advanced this process, with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg suggesting that Ukraine could join NATO without going through the traditional membership action plan process. Stoltenberg also announced plans to establish the NATO-Ukraine Council, which would give Ukraine equal representation and decision-making power within the alliance.

While progress is being made, the challenge lies in finding a delicate balance between affirming Ukraine’s path towards NATO and avoiding further escalation with Russia. The final communique, to be drafted in Vilnius, is expected to go beyond the 2008 pledge and acknowledge Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.