Legal Expert Explains ‘Lifeline’ Kavanaugh Tucked Inside Supreme Court’s Mail-In Ballot Ruling

A Supreme Court ruling that went against President Donald Trump’s plan for mail-in ballots may not be the last word on the subject, according to a legal analyst.

The U.S. Postal Service had adopted new rules for handling ballots that would take effect in this year’s midterm elections. In a 7-2 vote, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that prevented the rule from taking effect, as noted by Politico.

In a concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said that “applying the rule in the 2026 elections would be arbitrary and capricious in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections.”

However, he also wrote, “In my view, based on the briefing the Court has received at this interim stage, there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service’s statutory authority.”

Those words could be a bridge to putting the rule in play for the 2028 presidential elections, according to Fox News.

“I would note though that Justice Kavanaugh threw the government a lifeline by saying that he views it as likely that they do have the statutory authority. And I think if you read the dissent, you can see where Justices Thomas and Alito are on questions like that as well,” Jason Snead, executive director of Honest Elections Project, said.

Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito dissented in the ruling.

“I think there’s a fair chance that it winds back up in front of the Supreme Court eventually,” Snead told Fox News.

“I do think that as a practical matter, the rule is not going to be implemented in time for the midterms,” he said.

“I think that’s a done deal at this point. But I do hold out hope that there will be some additional litigation over this that could allow this rule to be implementing ahead of the 2028 presidential election,” Snead continued.

The rule would require federal ballot envelopes to include an election-mail logo and a unique barcode for each voter as a way to prevent fraud.

A group of 24 Democratic state attorneys general sued, saying only Congress can regulate elections. The Trump administration said it was simply overseeing mail, not elections.

“So this case is still alive and well, and I think that Kavanaugh has given us all some hope that as it progresses eventually, this rule might be allowed to go into effect hopefully in time for the 2028 election since the left has successfully killed it for 2026,” Snead continued.

Iowa Solicitor General Eric Wessan noted that timing was a major factor in the decision.

“So I’m not surprised now, close to the deadline when ballots have to go out to people that the Supreme Court took the approach of maintaining the status quo, although I think that Justice Alito’s dissent highlights a lot of issues with the approach taken by the majority, and I would not be sure that the same result would be what the Supreme Court reaches in advance of, for example, the 2028 election,” Wessan said.

“This rule won’t be in effect for the 2026 election, but it very well may end up in effect for the 2028 election, and this is just one of many actions the administration is taking to help with voter integrity,” Wessan said.

Snead noted that the time argument will not stand up between now and 2028.

“So they’re going to have a difficult time and a steeper hill to climb if they’re trying to explain in 2027, for instance, why they can’t possibly comply with basic rules like this over a two-year time frame,” Snead said.

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