Ex-Obama adviser says Joe Manchin is doomed in West Virginia.

Is Senator Joe Manchin’s Political Career Over?

David Axelrod, a top adviser to former President Barack Obama, sees no path to victory for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) as he weighs whether to run for another term in the Senate.

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2024. He has yet to announce whether he will defend his seat, but rumors suggest he’s considering a third-party run for president. However, David Axelrod, a top adviser to former President Barack Obama, believes that a presidential run could provide Manchin with a “graceful exit” from the Senate, as he trails his chief rival, Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), by double digits.

Could Manchin Challenge President Joe Biden?

Manchin is not expected to announce his 2024 plans until the end of the year, but he has kept speculation alive that he could challenge President Joe Biden for the presidency, perhaps at the head of a No Labels ticket. The outside group, which has floated the possibility of an independent run if the 2024 contest becomes a Biden-Trump rematch, is believed to be courting Manchin for that ticket.

The West Virginia senator said on Sunday that he is “not ruling anything out” when asked on Fox News about a Biden challenge. The only contest Manchin has dismissed is a run for West Virginia governor, having already served two terms as the state’s chief executive.

Manchin’s Tough Bid for Reelection

Manchin, a centrist Democrat, has managed to win statewide time and again despite West Virginia’s rightward shift, but he could face his toughest bid yet after national Republicans recruited Justice, one of the most popular governors in the country. The senator trailed Justice by 22 points in a poll released last week, but if another Republican, Rep. Alex Mooney, prevails in the GOP primary, Manchin stands a better shot. He’s only 1 point behind the West Virginia congressman.

The GOP race is expected to be costly, with the conservative Club for Growth pledging to spend at least $10 million on Mooney’s behalf. Yet national Republicans are already looking past the primary. The outside group One Nation has fired warning shots at Manchin, highlighting his vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature policy achievement. The senator has distanced himself from the law, threatening to vote for its repeal as an act of protest over the Biden administration’s energy policies. But he also took a victory lap this past week after Congress approved the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a project Manchin secured belatedly in exchange for his IRA vote.

What’s Next for Manchin?

Manchin is keeping his cards close to his chest, but with his poll numbers slipping and rumors of a presidential run swirling, it remains to be seen what his next move will be. One thing is for sure, though: Manchin’s political career is at a crossroads, and the decisions he makes in the coming months could determine his future in politics.

• Will he run for reelection?
• Will he challenge President Biden?
• Or will he bow out of politics altogether?

Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the political landscape in West Virginia is shifting, and Manchin will have to navigate it carefully if he wants to stay relevant.

Read more: David Axelrod: Joe Manchin ‘dead man walking’