Helping Ukraine Defend Itself Must Not Detract From Deterring China

Biden’s administration is slow in recognizing threats and prioritizing limited resources to prevent conflict. If deterrence fails, they will prevail. This is Russia’s balance act in its war on Ukraine.

The equivocating of President Joe Biden in the wake of the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan didn’t deter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded his neighbor. As Russia’s attack unfolded in Ukraine, Biden’s slow response cost Ukraine dearly.

Now America is facing an even graver challenge than the major regional conflict in Europe at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s doorstep: deterring the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan and attacking America’s allies in the region—and, if deterrence fails, prevailing in what would be the most difficult war the United States has faced since 1941.

Although the problem is straightforward, it requires difficult decisions about how to use limited resources. What can we do to help Ukraine and stop China’s leaders believing that they can conquer Taiwan?

China would see any Russian defeat, even a small one, as a victory in their alliance with Russia. Some observers even see China as not at all caring if Russia were to lose its war against Ukraine, if China’s ability to take Taiwan was enhanced through America’s support of Ukraine—although China would likely not welcome instability on their long border with Russia, nor the resultant freeing of defense resources in the West that could be reallocated to focus on China. There’s also Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal, many of which are still targeted at China.

A key element in that calculation is our defense industrial base as well as the speed at which we replenish military stockpiles. While falling short can encourage our enemies, it could also significantly increase risk during the initial stages of a conflict.

All major combatants participated in World War I. Rates of artillery consumption are seriously under-estimated. After six months of the guns of August unleashed their bloody barrages across Europe in August, British artillery batteries were given one round per gun by the French government on February 19, 1915.

Since then, weapons have become more complex. A typical artillery round from 110 years ago would have had about a dozen pieces. But the Javelin anti-tank missile of America, made famous by Ukraine’s highly successful use of approximately 8,500 missiles & reusable launchers, now contains thousands of circuits. $197,884 per missile, $241,803 for launcher.

The Javelin missile was first operational in 1996. United States has produced more that 50,000 and over 12,000 reusable Command Launch Units.—just under 2,000 missiles and 500 launchers per year. To support Ukraine’s defense against Russia, America has sent over four years worth of Javelin production. The Pentagon responded by placing new orders for the missile. This increased production from approximately 2,100 missiles per annum to around 4,000. It will take us more than two years for our war stock of Javelin missiles to be replenished.

Other weapons systems may be more relevant