After GOP Texas lawmakers and Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) enacted their state’s new House map, Democrats in deep blue California responded in-kind. A new House map pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and state Democrats, and adopted by voters, aims to shift what’s now effectively a 43-9 map in Democrats’ favor to an even more partisan 48-4 advantage.

A series of other states have since redrawn House district maps ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Virginia was supposed to be key to this plan, after voters approved a ballot measure aimed at shifting the current 6-5 Democratic edge to a 10-1 blue romp. But the Supreme Court of Virginia voided the voter-approved April 21 special election referendum, ruling that the General Assembly failed to meet constitutional requirements because it passed the ballot amendment after early voting for the 2025 election had already started.

Same map yields pair of competitive races

The practical effect of the state Supreme Court ruling is to keep the current Virginia House map in place. And Democrats are ramping up efforts to defeat a pair of incumbent Republicans they’d already been targeting for more than a year. One, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) in the 1st Congressional District, represents the western Chesapeake Bay area and suburbs north and west of Richmond. The other, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), represents the 2nd Congressional District, around suburban Hampton Roads.

Wittman has represented the 1st District since 2007 following the death of Republican Rep. Jo Ann Davis. The district stretches from the Richmond suburbs through the historic settlements of Williamsburg, Jamestown, and Yorktown to Norfolk.

District voters have traditionally supported GOP candidates, backing Trump in each of his three presidential runs, as well as Ed Gillespie and Glenn Youngkin for governor in 2017 and 2021, respectively. Wittman won his 2024 reelection campaign by more than 12 points.

But in November, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) beat her Republican rival, then Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by 2 percentage points in the district.

“That’s something that is bound to be catching the attention of both parties in Washington as they look at places where they need to focus their attention,” said John McGlennon, Ph.D., a professor of government at the College of William & Mary since 1974.

The nearby 2nd District has become a true swing district.

Stretching through Virginia’s Eastern Shore, including Virginia Beach, the military-heavy district has ping-ponged between GOP and Democratic representation since 2016. No incumbent has won more than two terms in office since former Republican Rep. Scott Rigell held the seat from 2011 to 2017.

While Trump has won two out of three elections in the district, his 2024 victory was by 0.2 percentage points.

The district also swung sharply in gubernatorial contests. Youngkin, Virginia’s governor from 2022 to 2026, carried it by 11 points in his 2021 win, while Spanberger won it by 9 points last year.

“Virginia Beach and Chesapeake seem to be trending blue,” Virginia Beach-based political strategist Joe Rubin said in an interview. “Kiggans has had to work really hard to maintain some sense of independence.”

Rubin observed that 2nd Congressional District voters prefer to believe that the person they’re going to vote for is going to be a member of the majority and have a spot on the all-important Armed Services Committee. Both Kiggans and likely Democratic opponent, Elaine Luria, have been members of the committee.

Norfolk-area rematch

Kiggans, a former Navy helicopter pilot and later a geriatric nurse practitioner, is expected to face Luria for the second time in three election cycles.

Annapolis graduate Luria served in the Navy for 20 years before defeating Republican incumbent Scott Taylor in 2018. She won a second term in 2020, again over Taylor, but lost to Kiggans in 2022.

Although Luria is considered a centrist Democrat, she voted in line with former President Joe Biden 98.2% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight. She voted with Trump’s stated position 11% of the time.

When Luria first ran for Congress in 2018, she promised not to accept money from corporate political action committees. But two years later, she took $34,000 in PAC donations, receiving criticism from the campaign finance reform group End Citizens United.

Rubin predicted the potential Kiggans-Luria rematch would be very expensive because both parties want to hold the seat.

“It’s going to come down to whether people feel comfortable with Donald Trump after two years of this administration,” he said.

Other candidates in the Democratic primary include Nila Devanath, Patrick Nosolf, and John Stringfellow.

The Cook Political Report has rated the race as a “Toss Up” after previously rating it “Lean Democrat.”

While the Kiggans-Luria rematch is likely, Wittman faces potentially one of his most formidable Democratic challengers in Shannon Taylor.

Taylor has served as Henrico County’s Commonwealth’s Attorney since 2012 and is well-known in the Democrat-leaning Richmond suburb. She successfully ran for re-election three times.

After passing on running for state attorney general in 2021, Taylor sought the position last year. She lost in the Democratic primary to Jay Jones, who went on to win the general election.

McGlennon believes Taylor’s first experience running for statewide office will help her against Wittman.

“Her campaign spent millions of dollars on television advertising, which is bound to have had an impact on her visibility and name recognition,” he said.

While Taylor is popular in Henrico County, McGlennon said that Wittman has been establishing himself in the Richmond suburbs. Wittman remains popular in the rural areas, which mostly make up the district.

“I think the fact that redistricting didn’t happen helps all Republicans, basically,” Rubin said.

Other candidates in the Democratic primary include Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs, Salaam Bhatti, Tim Cywinski, Jason Knapp, Ericka Kopp, Lewis Ward Littlepage, James Shea, and Mel Tull.

The 1st Congressional District is considered “Lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report. Had the new map been implemented, it would have been ranked “Solidly Democratic.”

What might be most important for both Kiggans and Wittman is their party label, given today’s polarized environment.

TRUMP ENDORSEMENT TRACKER: HERE’S WHO THE PRESIDENT HAS PICKED IN GOP MIDTERM ELECTION PRIMARIES

National surveys show that Americans are dissatisfied with both major political parties, but Republicans control the White House and both branches of Congress.

“It’s a challenge for a Republican candidate in a district which is both highly attuned to what’s happening in Washington and is not very happy with the direction of the country,” McGlennon said.

Taylor Millard is a freelance journalist who lives in Virginia. Follow him on X @TaylorMillard.