Possible rewrite: Government spending deadlock may trigger debt limit crisis.

Republicans Eyeing Government Shutdown-Style Fight After Debt Ceiling Deal

A first-ever national default may soon be averted, but already, some Republicans are eyeing a government shutdown-style fight that could be next.

Despite the recent debt ceiling deal, some GOP lawmakers are considering leveraging the appropriations process to extract additional concessions. However, there are a few traps baked into the debt limit deal that could foil such attempts.

Understanding the Debt Limit Deal

Congress stipulates its spending and borrowing parameters via multiple avenues, including the debt ceiling, the appropriations process, spending authorizations, and typically untouched entitlements. The debt limit merely gives the government the ability to borrow additional money to foot its bills. It does not, by itself, fund the government. That part, funding the government, largely derives from the appropriations process.

Every fiscal year, Congress is supposed to fund the government. If it fails to do so, either via a continuing resolution or the passage of 12 appropriations bills, before the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, then the government shuts down. Chatter about an appropriations slugfest has been overshadowed by the debt limit ordeal, but the signs are there.

Republicans’ Plan of Action

Some Republicans have suggested that they can control spending more transparently and precisely using powerful Congressional tools such as the upcoming appropriations bills. “Conditioning an increase in the debt limit upon opaquely negotiated concessions from the President is one way to get things done. But we can and should control spending more transparently and precisely using powerful Congressional tools such as the upcoming appropriations bills,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) tweeted.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) said during a recent interview with Real America’s Voice, “What leadership has got to do is bear down on … every Appropriations Committee of the 12 and show us upfront what they’re going to be advocating for, and it’s going to take severe cuts. If it’s a bait-and-switch operation, which is what we had on this bill, we’re going to fight.”

Is a Government Shutdown Possible?

Some experts have given mixed interpretations of the Fiscal Responsibility Act as to whether a government shutdown is possible given the language in the bill outlining an automatic 1% cut. A top Democratic staffer told the Washington Examiner it is indeed still a threat. Even Democratic leadership, as well as the White House, is acknowledging a government shutdown fight may be on the horizon.

“We have to avoid a government shutdown. There are some on the hard Right, just as they wanted to default, will try to push for a government shutdown. We’ll try to do everything we can to avoid it. And there are provisions in the bill that make that less likely,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters.

Challenges for Republicans

Republicans may appear as though they are reneging on their budgeting agreement if they attempt to play hardball in the appropriations process. “This [debt limit] deal sets the budget numbers,” Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute, told the Washington Examiner. “Republicans will significantly own these numbers.”

The debt limit agreement sets the top-line figures for discretionary spending by keeping spending growth down until 2024 before allowing roughly 1% annual increases starting in 2025. This translates to military spending clocking in at $886 billion for fiscal 2024 and nonmilitary discretionary spending at $704 billion, according to NBC.

If the “bad-faith negotiator” concerns don’t deter the GOP from girding for more concessions, there may be a few procedural hiccups in the way. A key silver lining for conservatives in the debt limit deal was a provision that stipulated there would be an automatic 1% cut on discretionary spending if Congress fails to pass the 12 appropriations bills before January 2024.

Conclusion

Regardless of whether an appropriations battle manifests, the debt ceiling agreement, should it become law, significantly shakes up the process for the next fiscal year. Traditionally, lawmakers enter those deliberations without top-line figures imposed by a debt ceiling deal. Moreover, Congress hasn’t passed all of its appropriation bills on time since 1997. The debt ceiling agreement significantly shakes up incentives on that front.