AZ GOP unsure about Kari Lake’s Senate bid, national party concerned.

Is Kari Lake Really Running for Senate?

A growing number of Arizona Republican political operatives remain unconvinced that former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is serious about running for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ). However, most concede that the former local television anchor is considered the most formidable opponent in a Republican primary if she should decide to run.

Is Lake Seriously Considering a Senate Bid?

Those close to Lake maintain she’s seriously considering a Senate bid. While Lake is still contesting the results of the Arizona governor race she lost, she appears to be plotting her next moves with several high-profile appearances. Lake is currently in Budapest, Hungary, participating in the Conservative Political Action Conference. Just this week, she announced the release of her memoir. Lake posted a photo to Twitter on Wednesday, stating, “Are you ready for the next chapter?”

The former Arizona gubernatorial candidate has popped up at former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate and met with Republican officials in Washington. A February swing through Iowa sparked speculation about whether she may be angling for a role as Trump’s running mate if he were to become the Republican nominee for president again. She’s also served as an enthusiastic surrogate for the former president.

What Do Republicans in Arizona Think?

However, Republicans involved in politics in the state think her most recent travel schedule signals the opposite. “She’s more concerned about burnishing her national and international cred than paying attention to Arizona,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist. “She’s more apt to be seen at Mar-a-Lago than at the Biltmore,” Marson said, referring to a luxury resort in Phoenix.

While most of the Arizona political strategists the Washington Examiner spoke with admitted they don’t have any specific knowledge of Lake’s plans, they don’t think her recent moves line up with a candidate who has serious senatorial ambitions.

What About National Republicans?

By contrast, national Republicans in Washington are bracing for Lake to announce a Senate bid in the near future. Lake met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee in early February, and while it’s unknown what exactly played out in that meeting, Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) has made it clear that he is focused on recruiting candidates that can win general elections.

What’s Next for Lake?

Lake’s next moves are nearly impossible to predict. Her Trump-aligned gubernatorial campaign was nontraditional, and her rise in a key swing state surprised political insiders in the state and the country. She’s known to be very involved in her campaign and had a small group of mostly young advisers who are from outside traditional Republican political circles. Her previous campaign had little in common with Republicans that ran before her, and she even alienated some voters when she repeatedly attacked the legacy of the late Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain, who is still well respected in the state.

Republicans have now lost three of the most recent Senate races, as well as the last presidential and governor contests in a state that used to be a major GOP stronghold. With Sinema’s switch to an independent, Republicans see a prime opportunity to win this election with a plurality of the vote but worry they will have another missed opportunity if Lake runs and wins the primary.

Lake continues to embrace the former president and endorsed his 2024 presidential run. She also has shown no signs of softening her claims of a stolen election. Independents and unaffiliated voters have tripled over the last 30 years to 1.4 million and make up about a third of the voting population, reasons why many don’t believe Lake has a shot of winning a general election.

• Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb became the first Republican to enter the race last month.
• Republican Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid last year by 5 percentage points, is still considering a run.
• So is Abe Hamadeh, who lost the 2022 attorney general’s race, Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the gubernatorial primary to Lake last year, and Republican businessman Jim Lamon, who lost in the primary for Arizona’s other Senate seat in 2022.

“They messed up in ‘18, ‘20, ‘22, and continue to go down this path of competing with this very narrow group of Republican voters, leaving a bunch of other Republican voters on the outside looking in,” Coughlin said. “I don’t have a belief that they have learned that lesson, they are still sniffing the Trump glue.”