Just after the election of President Donald Trump, Vance’s lead over Trump Jr. was 25% to 21% in the survey from one of the president’s top pollsters.

On the Democratic side, name recognition has kept former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump last year, in front. But at 30%, she has lost ground from the 35% she held in December and 36% in February.

The two candidates showing some life among the 17 other possible Democratic presidential candidates named in the poll are Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, tied at 8% and in second place.

Former Biden-era Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who this week began testing the political waters for a 2028 run, is in fifth place, dropping from 10% in March to 6% last month. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), who ranted against Trump recently in an overnight Senate filibuster, is fourth at 7%.

Pollster John McLaughlin said it is too early to declare anyone a front-runner, saying that the parties need to get through next year’s congressional midterm elections before the field becomes clearer.

But the past history of presidential elections and candidate testing of messages is clear: Once a sitting president becomes a lame duck, as Trump is, the jockeying begins. As an example, the edition of U.S. News and World Report that followed former President Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996 featured then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who went on to win the 2000 GOP primary and the White House.

The positive buzz on Vance has been high ever since he scolded world leaders in a controversial speech in Munich three months ago.

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And this week, Washington Examiner chief political correspondent Byron York quoted Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) declaring Vance the 2028 nominee. “JD Vance will be the nominee in 2028 — mark my words,” said Banks.

In the new survey, Vance is first, Trump Jr. second, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis third, at 6%. Fellow Trump White House insider Rubio is at 2%.