Russia is now able to launch entire missile salvos without Ukraine launching any interceptors, either to preserve its scarce ammunition or because it ran out altogether. Zelensky admitted Ukraine’s near-empty stockpiles in an interview with CNN, saying it currently only has 1% of U.S. Patriot missile interceptor stockpiles.

If the United States sells Ukraine 5% of Washington’s Patriot missile supplies, “we will go through the winter and save people’s lives. If they can sell us 10%, we will destroy all the Russians’ ballistic missiles. I have 1%,” he said.

Zelensky’s statement is exaggerated, however, as even Patriots are known to miss modern ballistic missiles traveling several times the speed of sound.

The Ukrainian president’s plea is almost certain to fall on deaf ears, however, coming at the worst possible time for Washington.

A global shortage

Zelensky adviser Dmytro Lytvyn told the Kyiv Post in March that Ukraine has received around 600 Patriot interceptor missiles throughout the war, nearly all of which have been expended. Just before Feb. 28, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the U.S. had 2,330 interceptors in its stockpiles. By July 27, this total fell to one-third of that, currently sitting at around 759-827.

Zelensky’s request for an emergency package of 300 Patriot interceptors before winter is a nonstarter, as this would nearly cut remaining stockpiles in half at a time when the threat of further Iranian ballistic missile assaults remains real.

Furthermore, the U.S.’s Middle Eastern allies also need to refill their own Patriot stocks after expending most of their arsenals against Iranian munitions. The U.S. has written partnerships with these countries, most of which house U.S. troops, ensuring they will take precedence over Ukraine.

In light of these realities, Zelensky has put some hope in a scheme to acquire licenses to build Patriot missiles, which they will then produce themselves. President Donald Trump entertained the idea at a joint meeting last month, but has since walked back the claim.

Even if Ukraine gets the licenses, however, it may not move the needle. Former Ukrainian top prosecutor and Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko poured cold water on the idea in an interview with the Ukrainian outlet 5 Kanal, saying that establishing the production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine would take over three years at least, more realistically around 10 years. The complexity and sheer number of advanced technologies involved in producing the missiles, not to mention the lack of experts, would prohibit the beginning of production for the foreseeable future.

One of Ukraine’s key advantages over Russia is that much of its weapons production and supply lines are located outside of the country, away from Russian missiles and drones. Focusing such sensitive production domestically would make it exceedingly vulnerable to Russian attack.

At current global production rates, it will take roughly two and a half years for the U.S. to reach its prewar levels of interceptors, and only if it cuts off all interceptor exports.

Russia’s military-industrial behemoth

At the same time, Russia has shifted its production to missiles over drones, especially ballistic Iskander missiles, which now enjoy free rein to hit anywhere in Ukraine. According to Serhii Beskrestnov, Zelensky’s adviser on defense technologies, Russia can produce 70 Iskander missiles per month. Zelensky himself noted that this production rate was twice the year before.

Maj. Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, gave a similar figure for Iskander production. Along with this, he said Russia had a monthly production target of 29 ship-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, 87 X-101 cruise missiles, and five hypersonic Tsirkon cruise missiles.

Air defense batteries are a top priority target for Russian missile and drone attacks, making it even more difficult for Ukraine to restart interceptions once its ammo runs out. Russian drones have also grown far more advanced, moving beyond the slow but cheap prop-powered Geran-2s to the jet-powered Geran-4, which can’t be intercepted by Ukraine’s interceptor drones.

Another growing nightmare for Ukraine has been the proliferation of the S8000 Banderol, a munition somewhere between a drone and cruise missile. Russia unveiled the munition last month, though Ukrainian intelligence had been aware of its existence since last year.

The weapon gets the best of all worlds, being cheap, fast, and highly maneuverable, while still packing a heavy punch in the form of a 330-pound warhead. Russian operators claim it has never been intercepted.

WORLD WAR III HAS ARRIVED, AND WE’RE ALMOST OUT OF MISSILES

The Banderol has been the workhorse behind Russia’s escalated campaign against port infrastructure in the critical port city of Odesa, Ukraine’s main Black Sea port city. Ukraine’s sanctions chief, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, claimed in a July 29 press conference that 80% of Russia’s attacks on food infrastructure in the city in June and July were carried out by Banderols.

With its dominance of the skies and increasingly effective munitions, Russia’s strategic drone and missile campaign has reached new heights over the summer, and the situation is only bound to get worse. As Russia’s inevitable energy infrastructure degradation campaign approaches with the winter, Kyiv will be put under the greatest strain of the whole war, all while its main supplier remains fully enmeshed in its grinding war with Iran.