Will Israel Attack Before Iran Gets Nuclear Weapons?

On the morning of June 5, 1967, Israeli pilots struck Egyptian air bases. By the end of the day, they had destroyed almost all of Egypt’s air force, about half of Syria’s, and all of Jordan’s. This pre-emptive attack came after years of rising tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors, who wished nothing less than Israel’s destruction. Gamal Abdel Nasser, president of Egypt and the face of Arab resistance against Israel, frequently promised to destroy Israel in the name of Palestinian liberation. In 1965, after many anti-Israel declarations, he explicitly stated, “We aim at the destruction of the state of Israel.”

F-35I Adir. Image Credit: IDF.

Egypt was responsible for several of Israel’s woes. The Palestinian Liberation Organization was created by the Arab League in 1963 as a terrorist resistance group to attack Israel from Arab-controlled territories. It was financed and supported by Cairo and Damascus. Nasser also ordered UN emergency forces housed in the Sinai to leave, putting Israeli security at risk and giving the impression an invasion was imminent. 

Furthermore, even after the 1956 Sinai Campaign proving Israel’s sensitivity regarding the Straits of Tiran – in 1955, Ben Gurion had declared that blocking the strait would be considered a casus belli – Nasser threatened freedom of navigation once more by mobilizing troops into the Sinai. Lastly, Israeli intelligence gathered evidence starting in 1965 of an impending attack by an Arab coalition. King Hassan II of Morocco taped a meeting of Arab leaders and officers discussing a new Arab-Israeli war, which he promptly handed over to Israeli intelligence, confirming military officials’ suspicions.

Arab states, but especially Egypt, constantly threatened Israeli security. But thanks to Israel’s intelligence apparatus and sense of insecurity, the country prepared itself for conflict and carried out pre-emptive attacks following what is now known as the Begin Doctrine developed after 1956. This allowed the state to win a war against enemies that surrounded it, had more resources available, and wished to destroy it. 

It has been 55 years since that fateful war ensured Israel protection from its enemies and established it as an important geopolitical factor in the region. Sadly, though, the threats to Israel haven’t ceased. They have only shifted, with Iran replacing Nasser and Egypt as Israel’s greatest rival. 

Iran’s enmity toward Israel is based primarily on religious fundamentalism and geopolitics. Opposition to the Iranian Islamic system is seen as morally repugnant, and as geopolitically untenable for this revisionist state. The destruction of Israel is the goal, and many means are used to achieve it. In the face of this Iranian threat, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet hinted at the possibility of striking Iran to stop its drive to achieve a nuclear weapon. 

Analyzing the conditions both in 1967 and the present, it becomes clear that a pre-emptive Israeli strike is possible. The conditions are strikingly similar. Like Egypt then, Iran