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White House report card: Trump finds his midterm message as crime rates plunge

The Washington Secrets edition for Friday covers a lively political week in August, highlighting developments at the White House and beyond. Key topics include new Iran strategies, a deceptive catering truck escape to avoid an assassination threat, and White House officials shifting positions amid tensions. President Trump appeared to pause negotiations with Iran, opting for sanctions and economic pressure, while tensions with Israel rose as Netanyahu rejected a plan for Gaza that involved Hamas disarmament. Trump celebrated a notable drop in violent crime rates, with homicides down 18% and other violent crimes nearly halved, contributing to a strong stock market and low inflation. However, foreign policy woes persist, especially regarding Iran’s intransigence and naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a growing alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan doubtfully expecting a Trump-led resolution. Domestically, staff changes loom with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt leaving, and other departures signaling ongoing shifts. Political analysts graded Trump’s performance, with Jed Babbin giving a C-, praising the crime decline but criticizing foreign policy flaws. Conversely, John Zogby assigned a D, criticizing Trump’s courtroom disputes, controversial Turkey exit, and ongoing foreign policy and military challenges. Additionally, Democratic candidate Abdul el Sayed distanced himself from the Democratic Socialists of America publicly, though his campaign staff ties suggest deeper connections. Notable quotes included a comment from Ernest Moniz on Iran’s strategic advantages and an overview of recent articles about Trump’s relationships, domestic policy successes, and international challenges. Lunchtime reads featured articles on Trump and Elon Musk’s rekindled relationship and china’s political shifts, all framed within the broader context of American and global politics.


Welcome to Friday’s edition of Washington Secrets. Who says August has to be dull in politics? We bring you our regular look at the White House week, plus more evidence of Abdul el Sayed’s links to the Democratic Socialists of America.

This week brought a new Iran strategy, a catering truck ruse, and signs that key White House figures are getting out while the going is good.

Donald Trump appeared to step back from negotiations with Iran last Sunday. He told Axios: “We are low-keying it.” Instead, he signaled he was content to let sanctions and economic pressure do the work, even as Houthi rebels, an Iranian proxy, claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco’s refinery.

At the same time, there was another setback for another plank of his Middle East policy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a 15-point plan for Gaza, which required Israel to withdraw as Hamas gave up its weapons.

The president took a lap of honor on Monday, swearing in Todd Blanche as attorney general after a protracted confirmation battle with the Senate. The big event was an executive order signing ceremony to upend vaccine policy and promote a spread-out schedule for children. Trump used the occasion to repeat a discredited theory linking vaccines to autism.

That night brought one of the most embarrassing stories of the year so far. The Washington Post reported that the president had been smuggled off Air Force One to a backup plane when he left Turkey last month to evade worries about an Iranian assassination attempt. The president was hidden in a catering truck to make the switch, leaving Cabinet secretaries, most of his aides, and the traveling press pool aboard what became a decoy plane.

On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said she was leaving at the end of the month. Trump said Leavitt wanted to spend more time with her family but would remain a key figure as an outside adviser. The announcement kicked off wild speculation about the identity of her successor. (Secrets‘ view? Trump is in no hurry to find a replacement.)

The tariffs story flared again on Thursday. Canadian trade officials threatened to leave USMCA trade talks if Washington pushed ahead with 50% tariffs on products from Canada.

By the end of the week, the focus was turning back to politics and economics. Trump was due in New York later Friday to campaign on crime ahead of the midterm elections. But the morning brought news of another key departure: Andy Baker, who is leaving his role as White House deputy national security adviser to join a think tank.

So what did our two political strategists make of it all?

Jed Babbin: Grade C-

Trump should be celebrating the massive reduction in violent crimes in America. But that news is a lot better than what’s going on in the Iran war and other foreign policy.

The cut in the crime rate — homicides down 18% and other violent crimes down almost 50% — is something that hasn’t happened in about a century. Trump has to take credit for some of it, while governors in red states get most of the credit. Governors in blue states are seeing crime rise to astonishing levels.

Meanwhile, the stock market’s Dow Jones Industrial Average has been above 53,000 all week, which is mighty good news for the economy. And the inflation rate has been about 3.4% for the past month, going down even if the price of gasoline is going up because of the Iran war.

Trump doesn’t seem to know how to get out of the Iran war. There’s no “Plan B” for dealing with the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran claims to control. We are in another “bombing pause,” which gives the Iranians time to rearm and boost their missile and drone production.

Of most significance is the new mutual defense treaty between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. They’re betting against the result of the Iran war and clearly aren’t betting that Trump can end the war successfully. At this point, that’s a pretty darn good bet.

Jed Babbin (@jedbabbin) is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush.

John Zogby: Grade D

President Trump has not met a court he won’t defy. He still wants to pursue a case against alleged vandalism at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and his handpicked board at the Kennedy Center has been ordered to place his name back on the building.

His exit from Turkey last month is steeped in controversy, not only because he was secreted off Air Force One, which was deemed in danger, but because he left senior Cabinet officials and the White House press on the plane, presumably caring little for the well-being of others.

The price of oil remains over $80 on the market. The strategic petroleum reserve remains at its lowest level since 1983. Iran has rebuffed U.S. efforts to broker a peace, now demanding billions of dollars before even considering reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth cannot persuade GOP members to back his defense budget, as the U.S. reportedly is running low on offensive weapons and money. The USS Lincoln has been deployed for over 260 days, and there are credible reports that some sailors are jumping overboard because of exhaustion, lack of food, and personal supplies.

The U.S. workforce is down by 1 million people.

But he is still president.

John Zogby (@ZogbyStrategies) is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book is Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should. His podcast with son, managing partner, and pollster Jeremy Zogby, can be heard here.

If it quacks like a soclialist

Progressive firebrand Abdul el Sayed wants you to know he is very much not a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. This week, he won the Democratic nomination to run for the Senate in Michigan.

And he did it by emphasizing his reasonableness. A standard quote runs thusly: “I’m not a socialist. I’m just a capitalist who understands how capitalism works.”

Fine. But why is he hiring aides who are very much members of the Democratic Socialists of America?

Step forward Mason Pressler, who announced this week he was joining el Sayed’s U.S. Senate campaign as regional political manager for Northern Michigan.

Pressler’s public bios list him as electoral chair of the Saginaw Bay Democratic Socialists of America, he has posted on SBDSA’s Facebook page and shared its endorsements. Plus, he was listed among attendees at the DSA’s national convention in Chicago last year.

This piece by Daniel Idfresne has more on how students driving hard-left campus politics are feeding directly into Democratic campaigns beyond the university gates.

Quote of the day

“Iran has the home-court advantage. And home-court advantages have not been working out so well for us in Vietnam and Afghanistan,” says Ernest Moniz, a key architect of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

Another great lunch with the Financial Times at one of Secrets‘ favorite D.C. restaurants, The Bombay Club. Well worth the read if you have a subscription.

Lunchtime reading

How Trump and Musk rekindled a relationship that seemed beyond repair: Great deep dive that suggests the pivotal moment came with the killing of Charlie Kirk, who spent the months before his death trying to repair the relationship.

Zhu Rongji, Chinese politician who championed ‘an almost Thatcherite economic vision’: A reminder of a different time, when China seemed to be moving in the right direction. Or was it all a ruse?

You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, click here.



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