Where are Iran’s most important power plants?

Iran’s most important power plants are clustered near its biggest population centers, including Tehran, Isfahan, Ahwaz, Qom, and Tabriz.

Slightly over 11% of Iran’s electricity output is produced by its five biggest power plants — the gas-fired Damavand Power Plant (2,868 MW), the gas-fired Shahid Salimi Power Plant (2,215 MW), the gas-fired Shahid Rajee Power Plant (2,043 MW), the Karun-3 Hydroelectric Dam (2,000 MW), and the Shahid Abbaspour Hydroelectric Dam (2,000 MW).

The largest, Damavand, is located just outside of Tehran. Along with the Rajee, Montazer Ghaem, Roudshour, and Mofateh power plants, these do most of the heavy lifting in providing electricity for the nearly 17 million people living in its greater metropolitan area. Damavand has the capacity to generate electricity for over 2 million homes alone.

The smaller plants of Besat, Rey, Tarasht, and Parand, located within the capital, also contribute, generating 50 to 950 MW each.

How could strikes against power plants hurt Iran’s power grid and economy?

Trump issued his most direct threat against Iran’s energy infrastructure on Wednesday, in a morning post on Truth Social.

“From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran,” the president said.

If Trump follows through on the threat, he may soon find that disabling Iran’s electricity grid is more difficult than previously imagined.

Given how many power plants Iran has and their geographical dispersion, it would take hundreds, if not thousands, of individual strikes to fully destroy the grid altogether, especially given the large size of plants like Damavand. But Iran purposefully designed its grid with military disruptions in mind after fearfully watching the U.S.’s ease with which it destroyed Iraq’s energy grid during the Gulf War. Tehran shaped its grid around decentralization.

“The Iranian electric grid is one of the most decentralised in the world, with around 130 to 150 power plants, primarily gas-fired thermal plants,” bne IntelliNews’ military analyst Patricia Marins said. “No individual plants dominate large portions of the country’s electricity generation.”

This structure makes Trump’s threat to destroy power plants in and around Tehran more difficult, as electricity from elsewhere in the country would immediately replace the targeted sites.

Marins pointed out that even if Trump were to take out the largest power plant in the country, Damavand, that still only represents 2.9% of the country’s electricity production.

Despite this, Iran’s electric grid has already sustained significant damage from both direct hits by U.S. strikes and indirect disruptions. Tavanir CEO Mohammad Allah-Dad said last week that the country’s power grid had been reduced by 4,200 MW in recent strikes, with 2,000 MW lost in direct damage.

If Trump were to decide on an extensive campaign to target Iran’s power plants across the country to truly put a dent in the country’s electricity generation, the results would be catastrophic for the country.

The country would quickly experience nationwide blackouts. Hospitals would cease operating, transportation would grind to a halt, communications would be cut off, and water treatment and desalination plants would stop operations. Some regions would be cut off from easy access to food and water, possibly triggering one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent memory.

A possibly easier way to decimate Iran’s electricity generation would be to target the South Pars gas field, where Iran gets 80% of its natural gas. Natural gas makes up to 86% of the fuel used to run the country’s power plants.

Is the threat working?

In the hours after Trump’s threat, Iran only began doubling down. Tasnim, a popular news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and seen as its de facto mouthpiece, quoted an anonymous “military source” in signaling Tehran’s unwavering stance.

“If the Americans target a bridge or a power plant in Iran, Iran will, in turn, strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities where the United States has interests,” he said.

“The Americans should have become fully aware in the past 10 days that Iran will target whatever it chooses. Therefore, any potential gamble by Trump will once again lead to his disgrace,” the source added.

He also reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to “exercising its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz,” which in the past has entailed attacking vessels that pass through without its permission.

Iran has hinted at its response in previous strikes, most notably in an attack against a Kuwaiti desalination plant last week. The Gulf states are even more vulnerable than Iran, with almost all their drinking water coming from desalination plants. If Iran were to strike these plants, millions would lose access to water instantly, and there would be no easy avenue to bring in water from elsewhere in time.

TRUMP THREATENS TO BLOW UP ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT FOR EVERY SHIP IRAN STRIKES

Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a professor at the University of Tehran and one of the most prominent pro-Tehran voices on X, hinted at this possibility in response to the threat.

“So it’s time to evacuate Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and probably Oman,” he wrote, a threat which was reposted favorably by Tasnim.