We’re Short of Missiles – It’s Time to Think

The war in Ukraine revealed many well-known problems with precision weapons. They are costly, require complicated supply chains and take time to make. With Russia’s invasion stretching into its second year and military leaders Warning A war with China is on the horizon Analysts, CongressAnd defense officials All of them support dramatically increasing spending on long-range missiles capable of delivering sophisticated, long-range weapons for war in the Indo-Pacific. 

This is a failure of both analysis and imagination by the world’s largest and most expensive defense establishment. 

Over a decade of funding and policy decisions have resulted in a “right-sized” Defense industry that produces precision-guided missiles at a low rate of replacement can be considered a defense industry that cannot produce them in peacetime. The excellent recommendations of recent studies could be used to help you accumulate more PGMs. Multi-year purchasesBetter Management Stocks that are still available and yes Increased spending. But the fundamental limit is rocket fuel. Explosives, microelectronicsAnd Skilled technicians They are in limited supply. It is therefore important to ramp up production of key missiles. At least two years.

This is time that the U.S. military might not have had. Chinese leaders will likely decide that military action is required to achieve their Indo-Pacific hegemony goal and subjugate Taiwan. The Pentagon won’t allow them to wait for its weapons stockpiles to be rebuilt, B-21 bombers to be fielded, or establish firebases all over southwest. Japan And the Philippines. An invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent, but China’s President Xi may perceive a window opening during which he can change the status quo through a range of operations from blockades or quarantines to cyber attacks, island occupations, and bombardment.

The defense establishment must not pretend that simply opening the money spigots will provide the missiles that will enable the U.S. military to fight the way it wants to against the People’s Liberation Army. U.S. forces should adopt new tactics and concepts that are compatible with the weapons and systems available this year and the next. 

There are many examples: the wars in Ukraine and Iran’s recent operations, as well as the war in Nagorno Karabakh. Because of shortages in PGMs, or attrition sanctions, the combatants in these conflicts sought out unmanned systems that could fill in the gaps. 

Russia was running out of many of its most powerful long-range weapons and began large-scale strikes against the Ukrainian infrastructure. Combinierte Numerous drones are cheaply manufactured with high-tech Kinzhal hypersonic rockets. By overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with drones, Russian attackers hoped to improve the missiles’ survivability and allow a smaller salvo to be more destructive. 

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Iran and its Houthi proxy have used a similar approach. They are restricted from building simple missiles or drones due to sanctions. Mounted During the past half-decade, there were strikes in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf and elsewhere. 

The U.S. military is beginning to embrace the idea of uncrewed vehicles being used to defend and enhance small long-range missile salvos. Programs like the Air Force’s Skyborg and Army’s Air-Launched effects These drones are meant to jam or confuse air defenses and precisely guide missiles so that they do the most damage. 

Systems like Skyborg and Air-Launched Effects receive less funding and attention than PGMs, but they could still be a valuable resource. Reprezent The fastest way to a more deadly U.S. force. These uncrewed missiles could make it easier for the U.S. to maintain its magazines. They could be built from existing or modified vehicles and put into service in the same time as a new missile production plant. 

Or the U.S. military can decide to forgo all missiles. In the past two years, Ukraine, Russia, IsraelIran,, and Iran all have used long-endurance drones for strikes on enemy ships, infrastructure, bases, and structures. Using everything from DJI quadcopters with hand grenades to Shahed-136 suicide drones carrying 200 pounds of explosives, these militaries have circumvented opponents’ air defenses through a mixture of slow speed, low radar signature, and numbers. 

These new techniques were possible thanks to the development of new technologies. Microelectronics and commercial automation software from the shipping, automobile, and telecoms industries are also important. What is more important is the Emergence Commercial mission-planning and command and control Software It can organize drone and missile operations to avoid defenses and locate hidden targets and maximize impact on the adversary. 

Mobilization is another benefit of software and hardware commercially derived. The U.S. defense industrial bases are unable to increase production in wartime. AnalysedIt has been described, and bemoaned over the past decade. However, by shifting more of its force design The U.S. military might be able to create commercially viable technologies from commercially-derived technology. mobilization A scale that has not been seen since World War II.

The Pentagon is running out of time to field a force capable against Chinese aggression in Western Pacific. This means that the Pentagon can’t wait for the defense industrial, designed for peacetime efficiency to build a military capable of fighting like defense planners desire to fight. Instead, the DoD should rethink its ability to fight using the military resources it has. There is a way forward. Our allies and adversaries are already showing it. It is time for Congress and the Pentagon to get on board.

Bryan Clark is the Director of Hudson Institute Center for Defense Concepts and Technology.