Virginia’s General Assembly elections are attracting significant national attention and funding.
Record Turnout in Virginia Elections Signals High Stakes for 2024
Over 320,000 Virginians have already cast their ballots in the upcoming local and state elections on November 7th. This election is being closely watched nationwide as it is being hailed as “the first election of the 2024 campaign cycle.”
According to data from the Virginia Department of Elections and published by the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), a total of 320,817 early ballots have been cast as of October 19th. This includes nearly 180,000 in-person votes and over 140,000 mail-in ballots.
The early voting period, which began on September 22nd, will continue until November 4th, the Saturday before the “off-year” election in Virginia. Virginia is one of four states holding odd-year elections this fall, with Louisiana already having held its elections on October 14th. However, Virginia is the only state where control of both state house chambers is up for grabs, making it a highly competitive race.
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Virginia’s elections have gained national attention as it is the only state with a highly competitive state legislature. Political analysts predict that Virginia will be the center of attention in the 2023 elections.
The November 7th ballot in Virginia includes all 100 seats in the House of Delegates, where the GOP currently holds a slim 52-48 majority, and all 40 seats in the state Senate, where Democrats have a 22-18 advantage.
Virginia’s elections are seen as a bellwether for national trends, with politicians across the country closely observing the outcomes for any indications of future political shifts.
Several patterns are emerging in Virginia that could signal broader movements in the 2024 elections. These include record-breaking campaign spending, abortion as a top issue, and a lack of voter enthusiasm compared to previous elections.
Big Money, Big Issues
According to VPAP, OpenSecrets, and the Virginia Center for Investigative Journalism (VCIJ), the candidates for the General Assembly and state-registered PACs have raised over $54.5 million as of September 12th. This figure does not include the millions pouring in from national organizations to state PACs and issue-oriented entities, as they are not required to disclose donors under Virginia law.
It is estimated that the total spending by campaigns, PACs, and interest groups will exceed $100 million, more than double the amount spent in the 2019 General Assembly elections.
Democrats are focusing their campaigns on the issue of abortion, with Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban being heavily criticized. Republicans, on the other hand, are emphasizing Youngkin’s “common sense” and “moderate” abortion proposal while highlighting parental rights in education.
However, polls indicate that Virginians are more concerned about the economy than any other issue. A recent survey of likely voters showed that 27 percent consider the economy and inflation as the top issue, followed by abortion at 17 percent and K-12 education at 12 percent.
Republicans and Independents prioritize the economy, with 41 percent and 30 percent respectively, while Democrats focus on abortion, with 25 percent considering it the top issue.
Notably, only 39 percent of respondents in the survey support Youngkin’s 15-week abortion ban, raising concerns for candidates campaigning on this issue.
With less than two weeks until the election, the poll results indicate a highly uncertain outcome. Currently, 42 percent of respondents plan to vote for Democrats, 41 percent for Republicans, and 17 percent remain undecided.
Voter Enthusiasm … Uncertain
The recent elections in Louisiana on October 14th saw the lowest turnout in a dozen years, with Democrats showing particularly low engagement. There are indications that Virginia’s General Assembly elections could follow a similar pattern, albeit to a lesser extent.
If current trends continue, voter turnout in Virginia may fall around or even below the 42.4 percent seen in the 2019 General Assembly elections. It is unlikely to reach the high levels of turnout seen in the 2020 presidential election or the 2022 midterms.
The deadline for voter registration in Virginia was October 16th, and over 6.1 million eligible voters have registered for the November 7th election, according to VPAP. However, the introduction of same-day in-person registration during early voting and on Election Day has added complexity to turnout predictions.
In 2022, the first election with same-day registration, over 25,000 Virginians voted using provisional ballots, with 96 percent of them being accepted. While this factor makes it difficult to predict turnout, there are indications that voter enthusiasm is not as high as in previous elections.
In September 2019, before the last statewide General Assembly election, 31,000 new voters registered. This year, only 19,000 new voters registered in September. The total number of registered voters has also decreased by 25,000 compared to 2022.
As of October 19th, 4.7 percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots through early in-person and mail-in voting. Additionally, over 218,316 mail-in ballots have been requested and can be requested until October 27th.
While current trends suggest a turnout similar to 2019, the availability of same-day registration and voting could lead to a late surge in voter participation. One thing is certain: the people of Virginia are well aware of the upcoming election, with campaign advertising dominating the airwaves.
The level of voter enthusiasm in Virginia is also an important factor to consider in this election. According to data from the Virginia Department of Elections, early voting numbers have been high, with over 320,000 ballots already cast. This suggests that Virginians are
How does the high early voting turnout in Virginia impact the overall voter enthusiasm for the upcoming election?
The high early voting turnout in Virginia indicates a strong level of voter enthusiasm for the upcoming election. It suggests that individuals are motivated and eager to cast their votes and have their voices heard. This increased participation in the early voting process shows a heightened level of interest and engagement in the election, which is likely to impact the overall voter enthusiasm in Virginia positively. It indicates that voters are taking the election seriously and are determined to exercise their democratic right to vote. This high early voting turnout could also encourage others who have not yet voted to follow suit, further boosting the overall voter enthusiasm in the state.
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