Virginia Elections: Crucial Test for Parties before 2024.
Virginia Midterm Elections: A Battle for Control
Before Governor Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 election, most thought Virginia would remain a Democrat stronghold. However, Youngkin’s victory revealed that this southern state was more politically diverse than previously believed. Now, with all 140 seats in the Virginia Legislature up for grabs, both parties are pouring a massive amount of money and effort into winning as many seats as possible, particularly in the state Senate and suburban areas.
According to College of William & Mary Government Professor John McGlennon, Virginia’s elections in 2023 are “the big game in town.” Party leaders are investing heavily in these elections to test themes and techniques that will likely be used in the upcoming presidential and congressional races. Virginia has become a magnet for money and a battleground for political strategies.
“Virginia is really a magnet for money right now. It’s a good chance for the parties to test themes and techniques, and so they’re investing heavily in it, knowing that they will spend much, much more next year during the presidential and congressional races, and this is a good chance for them to see what is more likely to work in those races,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Leaders Invest in Virginia
While Governor Glenn Youngkin has been leading an effort to get Republicans elected to the state’s House of Delegates and Senate, Democrats have top leaders, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), campaigning and holding fundraising for Virginia’s state senate candidates and former President Barack Obama encouraging Virginians to vote.
The latest figures from Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), which cover funds raised between Oct. 1 and Oct. 26, show Democrats outraising Republicans, more so in House races but with a smaller margin between the parties’ totals in the Senate.
VPAP Senate finance data shows Democrats raised a total of $12.7 million to the GOP’s $10.6 million. For House candidates, Democrats raised $14.2 million and Republicans $8.4 million.
The November 7 election is being called a bellwether for 2024, indicating how the electorate may lean in congressional and presidential contests. This is why both parties have invested millions in these midterm elections, as whoever controls Virginia is more likely to win the White House.
Governor Youngkin has called the upcoming election one of the most important, not just for Virginia but for the nation as a whole. He is hopeful that Republicans can win the state Senate majority, building on their recent victories in the House.
In just a few days, it will be decided if Republicans achieve their trifecta, Democrats hold onto the Senate and take back the House, or if each party controls one chamber for another two years.
Top Suburban Districts
McGlennon said suburban voters were key to Youngkin’s win and is the reason why so much attention is being paid to certain suburbs.
“I think the Democrats have increasingly been reliant upon building majorities in suburbs, and if that has been blunted by Governor Youngkin or the Republicans here in Virginia, I think you’ll see the Republicans looking for ways to emulate that strategy in other suburban districts,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Although Republicans need to keep the majority in the House of Delegates, the state Senate races are getting much more attention from both sides of the aisle.
Youngkin has been campaigning alongside various GOP candidates, including Juan Pablo Segura, who is running in one of the most competitive Senate races against opponent Ms. Russet Perry. The contest is also one of the most funded, with both raising over $2 million.
District 31 is in Northern Virginia and includes parts of Loudoun County, which Youngkin carried by less than 1 point and Democrats won by nearly 6 points in 2022.
Perry, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and prosecutor, has criticized Segura’s support for Youngkin’s 15-week abortion ban proposal, while 35-year-old entrepreneur Segura has slammed Perry for supporting groups that called to defund the police.
Different Priorities
According to their election websites, a top priority for Perry is a woman’s right to abortion, while Segura lists parental rights and school safety as a top priority.
Democrats have been running ads claiming Republicans will ban all abortions if they win the Senate and keep the House, which the GOP responded to in an ad in which they try to set the record straight, that there is no ban, only a limit to abortion during the first trimester.
McGlennon said abortion is very important to suburban voters and the reason Youngkin ran out a counter ad to the Democrat’s abortion ban claim.
“Campaign ads reflect the idea that both parties see abortion as a powerful force driving the electorate,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Nonetheless, Virginia Democrat Senator Mimi Locke told her followers Friday morning on “X” to vote because it’s a matter of “life and death”.
“Youngkin wants to take away reproductive freedom from women, our Virginia Senate Democrat candidates, who are teachers, parents, and everyday working people, are fighting for our communities and freedoms,” wrote Locke.
Parental rights and school safety are also major concerns for voters in District 31, especially after the Loudoun County 2021 sexual assault case involving two students and recent drug overdoses in district schools.
Segura said while Senate Republicans tried to enact legislation to prevent overdoses by stopping Fentanyl dealers, Democrats blocked the measure.
“Republicans wanted stiffer penalties for fentanyl drug dealers. The radical leftist-controlled state senate struck that down again. They partnered with fentanyl drug dealers instead of families. That’s crazy,” Segura told Fox News during a Nov. 2 interview.
Loudoun County voter, Ms. Anne Miller, told The Epoch Times that one of the issues she is most concerned about this election cycle is parental rights and protecting students from having to share bathrooms with the opposite sex.
Abby Platt, another Loudoun voter, told The Epoch Times that she will be voting for Segura because he understands what matters to the local community.
“He will care about our kids. The other candidate talks about abortion and big federal issues. And for me, I feel like you need to understand your local community,” said Platt.
Other Suburban Districts
Meanwhile, in a Richmond suburban, District 16, incumbent Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is trying to fend off attacks about her wanting to ban abortion by making it clear she, as an OB-GYN, does not want to make that decision for women.
Dunnavant is up against Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg in a seat that redistricting shifted from 50/50 to Democratic-leaning. A district Youngkin lost by 6 points, and Democratic congressional candidates won by 10 points in 2022.
In the 24th District in southeast Virginia, including Williamsburg and Poquoson, incumbent Democratic Sen. Monty Mason is facing off against Republican Danny Diggs, a retired sheriff.
Youngkin won the district by 3 points, and Democrats carried it by 1 point in 2022, so there is a strong chance that the GOP can win it back next week.
Another Senate race being closely watched is Senate District 30, where Republican Bill Woolf is running against Democrat Danica Roem, the first transgender and former member of the House of Delegate, in a contentious race that could go either way.
While Democrats, like Roem, are focused on abortion rights, providing more funding to public schools, and enacting stricter gun control, Republicans, including Woolf, are focused on improving the economy and adding funding to law enforcement agencies to better hold criminals accountable.
While Republicans are hopeful, District 30 is less guaranteed to flip since Youngkin lost the district by 4 points and Trump lost it by almost 11 points.
However, Woolf told The Epoch Times that in the few days heading into Nov. 7, he is focused on talking to as many people as he can.
“Our strategy is to talk to as many voters across the district as we possibly can between now and 7:00 p.m. on the 7th, we just want to make sure that people are informed,” said Woolf.
Crossing Party Lines
Woolf said voters have been telling him that public safety is a major concern for them.
Ms. Shamim Sagar, a Manassas voter in Woolf’s district, told The Epoch Times that her main concern is the rising crime and believes Republicans can solve this problem. She will be voting Republican for the first time.
“I’m living in a peaceful area, it used to be very peaceful. Now we have to lock our car, lock our house other[wise] than something happened every day,” said Sagar.
In addition, another Manassas voter, Joe Para, told The Epoch Times that his main concern is the economy. He will vote for the candidate that will help bring down inflation and taxes. However, his friends and family vote along party lines no matter the issue.
Mr. Nigel Chinemilly, a Loudoun County voter, told The Epoch Times that he is most concerned about the economy and his children’s future.
“Are we going be like Europe, where we’re paying 65% into taxes, not have been able to own a house, [and] not live the American dream like we were supposed to live,” said Chinemilly.
Meanwhile, a Fairfax County voter, Ms. Camy Owens, told The Epoch Times that she is voting early in the Virginia midterms to help ensure that school board members who support providing more money to public schools are elected. She said she is a devoted Democrat who is very concerned about who will win the 2024 elections.
However, Mr. Chinemilly had a different view and said people should look not at the party but at the solution the candidate is bringing forth, especially when it comes to which candidate supports parents, transparency from schools, and will keep children safe.
“When it comes to stuff like that, I think you should just leave party lines out of it,” said Chinemilly.
How does the outcome of the Virginia gubernatorial race potentially impact future elections and the balance of power in Washington
They lose those suburbs, it becomes difficult for them to win statewide,” he said. “The Republicans’ greatest impact has been in the suburbs.”
According to New York Times election data, the top suburban districts in Virginia include Loudoun County, Prince William County, Fairfax County, Henrico County, and Chesterfield County. These counties have seen significant population growth in recent years, with many residents moving from more urban areas.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won all five of these suburban counties, but the results in the Virginia gubernatorial race are expected to be much closer. Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping these suburban districts and gaining support from independent voters.
McGlennon also pointed out that these suburban districts are diverse and have a mix of affluent and working-class voters. Candidates from both parties have been targeting these areas, focusing on issues such as education, taxes, and public safety.
Key Issues
Education has emerged as a major issue in the Virginia gubernatorial race, with debates around critical race theory, school mask mandates, and transgender rights. Many Republicans have criticized Democratic policies on these issues, while Democrats accuse Republicans of fearmongering and misrepresenting their positions.
Another key issue is public safety. Republicans have focused on rising crime rates in the state and have criticized Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe for his stance on law enforcement. McAuliffe, on the other hand, has accused Youngkin of being supported by extremist groups and has emphasized the need for criminal justice reform.
Economic policies, taxes, and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic are also important issues in the race.
Biden’s Impact
The outcome of the Virginia gubernatorial race is seen as a reflection of President Joe Biden’s popularity and the Democratic Party’s performance. Biden won Virginia by 10 points in the 2020 election, but his approval ratings have declined since then.
If McAuliffe loses the race, it could signal trouble for the Democratic Party in future elections, as it would suggest a loss of support among independent and moderate voters.
On the other hand, a Youngkin victory would be seen as a boost for Republicans nationwide and could energize the party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential race.
Election Security
Election security has also been a major focus in the Virginia race, with both parties expressing concerns about the integrity of the election process.
Republicans have raised questions about the use of mail-in voting and have called for stricter voter ID laws. Democrats, on the other hand, have accused Republicans of attempting to suppress voter turnout and promoting baseless claims of election fraud.
The Virginia Department of Elections and local election boards have reassured voters that rigorous security measures are in place to protect the integrity of the election.
The results of the Virginia gubernatorial race will be closely watched by political observers across the country, as they could have implications for future elections and the balance of power in Washington.
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