GOP Learned Nothing From 2006 About Midterms, Foreign Wars
Tuesday’s midterms look poised to be the biggest Republican losses since 2006, when voters punished the GOP over a poorly conceived war in the Middle East, The Federalist’s Sean Davis said on X.
Exit polling in 2006 showed 56% of voters disapproved of the Iraq War, adn most of those voters supported Democrats by an 80-18 margin. Two decades later, an October Pew survey found 65% of Americans disapproved of how President trump handled U.S. military action in Iran, while just 33% approved. the Associated Press reported that roughly one-third of voters said the Iran conflict was an vital factor in their congressional vote this cycle.
Prominent commentators had argued there was little downside to striking Iran. Marc thiessen told the Washington Post that Iran was weakened and vulnerable to U.S. strikes, calling it a rare opportunity to deliver a decisive blow. Bret Stephens of the New York Times also argued there could be a case for attacking Iran despite the risks. Heritage Foundation adviser James Carafano declared that the U.S. had already won the war.
But the conflict has continued longer then some predicted, and public approval of Trump’s performance has fallen. A recent Pew poll found just 35% of Americans now trust his foreign-policy decisions (down from 53% in November 2024) and only 35% trust his handling of the economy (down from 59%). By Election Day 2006, voters said by 59-35 that the Iraq War hadn’t made America safer.
The political fallout from the Iran conflict echoes 2006: in 2006, 36% of voters said they voted against President George W. Bush.In a Pew survey this October, 44% of registered voters said their congressional vote was intended as a rebuke of Trump.
Author note: Brianna Lyman is an elections correspondent at The Federalist and a Fordham University graduate in International Political Economy.
Tuesday’s midterm elections are shaping up to be the “biggest national wipeout for Republicans since 2006, when voters brutally punished the GOP for an ill-advised and poorly planned war in the Middle East,” The Federalist’s CEO and co-founder Sean Davis said in a post on X.
In 2006, 56 percent of voters disapproved of the Iraq War, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of a national exit poll. The majority of those voters backed Democrat candidates, 80 percent to 18 percent.
Twenty years later, Pew released a survey in October that found 65 percent of Americans disapproved of how President Donald Trump was handling U.S. military action in Iran, while just 33 percent approved. According to the Associated Press, roughly one-third of voters said the Iran War was a crucial factor in their vote for Congress this election cycle.
But this wasn’t the outcome that the war’s advocates have pushed.
“There is no U.S. downside to striking the Iranian regime,” Marc Thiessen wrote in The Washington Post in January.
“There is no downside to striking the regime. Trump has already done so twice, and each time, Iran was unable or unwilling to retaliate. Indeed, the Soleimani strike came at a time when Iran was much stronger than it is today. Since then, Iran has suffered repeated blows that have left it weaker than at any time since the 1979 revolution,” Thiessen wrote. Thiessen went so far as to say “Iran is strategically naked” and “unable to effectively defend itself against a U.S. strike or respond decisively either directly or by proxy. This gives Trump a historic opportunity to deal the regime a mortal blow.”
The New York Times’ Bret Stephens wrote an entire piece making “the case for striking Iran” in February. Stephens noted that Trump was not giving an explanation for possibly striking, but that “it doesn’t mean there isn’t a compelling case for action.”
“Despite the risk that military strikes entail, the bigger risk, in the judgment of history, would be to fail to take it,” Stephens wrote.
Heritage Foundation Senior Counselor James Carafano said in response to a March press briefing that, “The reality is the U.S. has already won this war, period. Mic drop. End of statement.”
But now, the war we were repeatedly promised would end quickly is still dragging on, and Americans are clearly unhappy with Trump’s handling of the conflict.
A poll released last month found only 35 percent of Americans were confident in Trump’s foreign-policy decision-making, down from 53 percent in November of 2024. Confidence in Trump’s economic decision-making also went from 59 percent to 35 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, by Election Day 2006, a margin of 59 to 35 percent of voters said the Iraq War had not made America safer.
The political consequences of the Iran War also mirror those of the Iraq War. In 2006, 36 percent of voters claimed they voted to oppose President George W. Bush. Meanwhile, in a Pew survey released in October of this year, 44 percent of registered voters saw their congressional vote as a vote against Trump.
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