US counterterrorism abilities in Afghanistan questioned 2 years post-Biden’s withdrawal.
The United States’ Counterterrorism Strategy in Afghanistan Raises Questions
The United States’ ability to maintain counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan without boots on the ground has come under scrutiny. Despite the Biden administration’s assurance that it could effectively carry out its strategy, only one drone strike has been publicly announced within Afghanistan since the military withdrawal.
The End of the War in Afghanistan
In August 2021, President Joe Biden fulfilled his campaign promise to end the war in Afghanistan. However, the U.S. left with the Taliban back in control of the country, reminiscent of the situation 20 years ago when U.S. troops were initially deployed after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
Biden’s administration believes it can still execute its counterterrorism strategy through over-the-horizon capabilities. These capabilities involve monitoring specific areas through aircraft and other means without physically having boots on the ground.
“Fast forward, having left two years ago, we’ve done one drone strike. So having previously been able, because we had people on the ground to help with targeting ensuring we don’t have unnecessary collateral damage and provide battle damage assessment,” retired Col. John Barranco, a U.S. Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the Washington Examiner. “I think the contrast in the numbers narrative is pretty telling what a difference it makes to be there present on the ground versus where we are now.”
Since the U.S. withdrawal, the only strike launched into Afghanistan targeted Ayman Al Zawahiri, the successor of Osama bin Laden in al-Qaeda’s leadership.
“The short answer to your question is yes, we do maintain over-the-horizon capability and we’ll take appropriate measures as necessary when it comes to safeguarding our homeland and protecting our national interests,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters on Thursday in response to a question about whether the U.S. can still conduct over-the-horizon strikes.
Without boots on the ground, U.S. forces heavily rely on overhead capabilities for conducting counterterrorism missions from a distance. Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper explained that having troops in the country provides a variety of resources to gather information and confirm details in much greater detail.
U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla expressed concerns that ISIS-K, the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State, could launch attacks against U.S. interests outside of Afghanistan in less than six months “with little to no warning.”
While the administration highlighted the Zawahiri strike as evidence of its reach without troops on the ground, his location in an upscale neighborhood in Kabul suggested that he was staying there with the knowledge and permission of the Taliban.
Retired Col. John Barranco emphasized that leaving Afghanistan made U.S. military personnel safer, but it also increased the risk for Americans overseas in Europe, the Middle East, and within the continental United States.
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