Undecided voters could push Graham to his first runoff
Sen. Lindsey Graham has repeatedly won Republican primaries in South Carolina without facing a runoff, but a Citadel poll suggests that could change this Tuesday. The poll found 18% of likely GOP primary voters are undecided-signaling the race could remain split enough to force a June 23 runoff against challenger Mark Lynch,whom Graham would likely face for the first time since returning to office in 2002.
In the poll, graham leads with 46% and Lynch follows with 36%. That tight margin contrasts with Graham’s prior primary win in 2020,when he captured more than 67% against multiple challengers. Despite entering the race as a clear front-runner-backed by President Donald trump and supported by strong fundraising and name recognition-the contest has turned contentious over graham’s stance on U.S. involvement in Iran. Graham has urged a hard-line approach, including telling constituents in March to “send their sons and daughters to the Mideast,” and he argues the costs and sacrifices related to the Iran conflict are necessary to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Several challengers, including Lynch, have criticized Graham’s position.Lynch, running from an “America First” perspective and backed largely by the Trump-opposition wing of the GOP (including endorsements from former ex-administration officials), has accused Graham of moving away from what Lynch says Trump prioritized in his second campaign. Trump has also weighed in during a Monday tele-rally, praising Graham and suggesting victory is near, potentially reflecting concern about how the Iran-related divide could influence the primary result.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has spent more than two decades winning Republican primaries in South Carolina without ever being forced into a runoff, but a sizable bloc of undecided voters could test that streak Tuesday in the state’s primary elections.
A Citadel poll published last week found that 18% of likely Republican primary voters are undecided in the race for the GOP Senate nomination, leaving open the possibility that Graham could fall short of the majority needed to avoid a June 23 runoff against leading Republican challenger Mark Lynch.
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The Citadel poll put Graham with 46% of the Republican primary vote, Lynch with 36%, and 18% still undecided. A split GOP vote could force Graham into a second-round contest for the first time since taking office in 2002. Graham won his last primary in 2020 with over 67% of the vote, defeating three GOP challengers.
The four-term Republican entered the race as a clear favorite, armed with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, a massive fundraising advantage, and statewide name recognition built from his over 20 years in the Senate.
Yet the contest has unfolded against the backdrop of U.S. involvement in Iran, which Graham has backed, putting him at odds with some of the party’s isolationist wing.
Graham has been among the Senate’s most vocal advocates of a hard-line approach toward Iran and has strongly backed the Trump administration’s military campaign. The longtime senator told his constituents in March to “send their sons and daughters to the Mideast.” He has also framed rising costs for consumers as a result of the Iran war as “consequential,” but necessary to stop Tehran from having a nuclear weapon.
That stance has drawn criticism from several Republican challengers in the crowded field, including Graham’s main opponent, Lynch.
GRAHAM SAYS IT’S ‘WORTH LOSING MY JOB’ FOR NON-NUCLEAR IRAN AS MIDTERMS LOOM
Lynch has taken a hard-line “America First” approach and accused Graham of abandoning the idea that Trump centered his second campaign on. Lynch, who has a business background, is backed largely by the Trump opposition wing of the GOP, with endorsements from several ex-administration officials such as former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent and former Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino.
Trump signaled he was aware of how Graham’s Iran war stance could affect his performance in the primary and joined in during a tele-rally Monday night. Trump told voters that the United States would win “over the next two weeks, when we declare total victory,” and touted Graham’s backing.
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