Ukraine Needs One Thing in Order to Stop Russia’s New Offensive
Russian President Vladimir Putin Soon, they may announce a second mobilization drive In advance of a new offensive against Ukraine. While Ukraine Over the past year, has driven Russian forces It is the only one that has achieved this feat in large parts of Ukraine. tremendous human cost.
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Putin Attempts to Reset the Iron Curtain
Putin’s dream of a two-week victory Although he may have passed away, he believes that he can still win. war of attrition.
Ukraine, after all, has less than one-third of Russia’s population. Even with Western resupplyUkraine burning through munitions These are available faster than Western governments can supply them. Moscow also knows that European unity is transitory: Within the European Union, there is usually one member-state government—take your pick among Berlin, Paris, or Rome—that will seek to cash in on commercial opportunities while cynically citing the need for diplomacy.
NATO’s consensus-based diplomacy makes the political situation even more dire. Türkiye already seeks to both leverage its de facto veto to extort diplomatic concessions while simultaneously seeking to profit from conflict. Putin believes that all of these factors are enough to win his war. He needs to transform Ukraine into a 21st Century Stalingrad.
Russian Troops Ready for Next Big Push?
The new Russian approach is looming and it is now that the United States and its allies are changing their approach to Ukraine. The White House has calibrated its military assistance to allow Ukraine to defeat Russian forces on Ukrainian soil, but not to take the fight to Russia directly. This was done to allow Ukraine to defend itself, without encouraging Russia to escalate its war or use nuclear weapons. Diplomats hoped that by restraining the Ukrainian resistance, Putin would be able to negotiate and save his face.
This has not worked. Putin’s bluster is not only unrestrained, but he also interprets U.S. restraint in his favor as an invitation to go on his offensive with the ultimate goal of driving independent Ukraine from the map.
Western Commitment and Support
I have previously argued that the United States must provide Ukraine with the platforms it needs. Abrams tanksNot only that, but also training on platforms it may need in the future. F-16s. It also has a moral as well as a military duty. enable Ukraine to strike the factories Russia makes rockets, artillery and other weapons using its nuclear arsenal. President Biden allows Putin to shoot fish out of a barrel, and vice versa.
This logic holds true even though a new Russian offensive is possible. If the new mobilization effort succeeds more efficiently than its predecessor, or is even 25% more successful, Ukraine will soon be confronted with a new wave of Russian troops. While most of them will not be well-armed or have high morale, numbers do matter. They will be assembled, equipped, and transported into Ukraine by the Russian Ministry of Defense. To protect Ukraine and minimize their impact, allow Ukraine to strike them while they are assembling and moving toward the Ukrainian frontier.
Expand Ukraine’s Capabilities
Rather than limit Ukraine’s arsenals to relatively short-range missiles, the United States and western countries should allow Ukraine to strike by plane, drone, missile, or artillery into the assembly areas and columns in which Russian forces might gather.
Offering Kyiv options would also help to reduce the temptation utilize cluster munitions For the protection of mercenary and Russian forces advancing. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are allies of the United States. parties to the Convention on Cluster Munitions.
Putin cannot launch nuclear weapons Every aide and himself know that to allow their launch would be a near-immediate death. Self-deterrence by the Biden administration does not bring peace. Instead, it confirms Putin’s bluster and blackmail and gives him hope that his dream to bring Kyiv under Russian rule is possible. Putin doesn’t want escalation, with 12 percent more of his army being buried in the muddy Ukrainian fields and brought home in body bags. He has one option: Stop hostilities.
The White House and its European allies must convince him that this is his only option. The best way to do this is to allow Kyiv to strike where it most matters and end Russia’s offensive before it ever reaches Ukrainian soil.
Dr. Michael RubinFormer Pentagon official, he is now a resident scholar at American Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer in the Naval Postgraduate School.
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