Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of plotting a crisis at nuclear power plant

Is Russia Planning a “Massive Provocation” at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant?

Ukrainian intelligence officials have warned that Russia is planning a “massive provocation” at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. The aim is to short-circuit Ukraine’s long-expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Ukrainian defense intelligence directorate has stated that “They are planning to attack the territory of the ZNPP. After that, they will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances. They obviously will blame Ukraine.”

“They aim to provoke the international community and conduct a detailed investigation requiring a ceasefire,” the Ukrainian intelligence bulletin said. “Russians are going to use this [in order to gain a] desirable pause for the regrouping of the occupational personnel and to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

The power plant was seized by Russian forces last year in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion to overthrow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This spurred international anxiety about the potential for a crisis at Europe’s largest nuclear plant. The latest allegation points not to a true radiological disaster, officials suspect, but rather an “imitation” or simulation of a crisis expected to unfold “in the nearest hours” for diplomatic reasons.

Putin Eager for a Pause in the Conflict

The Ukrainian allegation fits into a wider Western assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin is eager for a pause in the conflict, following a monthslong bloodbath around Bakhmut expected to give way to a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.

“Russia tries to somehow stop the Ukrainians advancing, which is going to [be] happening in the coming weeks,” a senior European official said. “But the Russians definitely want to once again frighten a critical mass in the world to put pressure on Ukraine to start negotiating.”

• China joined that effort over the last week by deploying Special Envoy Li Hui on a diplomatic tour of Ukraine and key European capitals that included an appeal for European officials to break with the United States in aiding Ukraine.
• The Chinese envoy delivered a “mechanical” performance in Kyiv, according to the European official, who explained that Li seemed to stick to China’s 12-point peace plan without offering a serious discussion.
• The Chinese peace plan does not include a demand for Russia to withdraw from the territories it has seized.

“I doubt that they really believe themselves that there’s a possibility to pressure … the Ukrainian side — because at the moment Russia wants it, but Ukrainians don’t want to stop — that they can pressure Ukraine to stop,” the official said. “The meetings have been too mechanical … if you are going to negotiate, you negotiate. You are not sticking to [talking] points that you are basically reading.”

The Ukrainian statement might fit into the mold of U.S. decisions to declassify intelligence assessments in order to preempt Russian actions. Yet the first senior European official conceded that it’s not possible to “know 100 percent” if the Ukrainian side really believes that Moscow intends to pretend there is a nuclear disaster at the occupied plant.

In any case, “Russians are still there and in southern Zaporizhzhya as well, so I’m not expecting them to radiate their own units,” the senior European official said.