Trump’s court battles could be his only obstacle
In the Spirit of the Season: 12 Issues Shaping 2024 and Beyond
The Washington Examiner has identified 12 crucial issues that will have a lasting impact on the future, going beyond the year 2024. These in-depth examinations cover a wide range of topics, from the ongoing battle between the Biden family’s business dealings and Republican Oversight, to the emergence of a “new world order,” and the contentious fights over redistricting and new election maps. In Part 12, we delve into the one thing that could potentially prevent former President Donald Trump from returning to the White House.
Trump’s Legal Battles: A Potential Roadblock to the White House
In 2023, former President Donald Trump faced a series of indictments and legal troubles that seemed to only strengthen his position in the Republican presidential primary. However, these court battles could prove to be his downfall in the 2024 election, despite his apparent electoral strength.
Last year, Trump was indicted four times and found himself entangled in legal disputes with E. Jean Carroll and the state of New York. Surprisingly, these indictments in different jurisdictions turned out to be political gold for Trump. Each new charge gave him momentum in the polls, allowing him to distance himself from other GOP contenders.
Trump’s first indictment came from Manhattan, where he faced charges related to alleged falsification of business records for hush money payments made before the 2016 election. The former president vehemently denounced these charges as a ”Witch-Hunt” and “Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history.” Prospective voters seemed to agree, as Trump maintained a lead in the polls.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump was only slightly ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in late March 2023. However, after the indictment, Trump surged ahead, leading DeSantis by as much as 25 points by the time the Florida governor announced his presidential campaign in late May.
Trump even managed to surpass President Joe Biden in head-to-head polling, regaining a lead in September. Subsequent indictments in federal court in Florida, Washington, D.C., and Fulton County, Georgia, only further bolstered Trump’s position.
As we enter 2024, Trump currently holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary field, with a margin of over 50 points. It appears he is on track for a rematch with Biden in the presidential election. Furthermore, Trump is leading Biden by more than 2 points in the national polling average, despite losing the popular vote to Biden in 2020.
However, recent polls in key swing states, which Trump lost in 2020, indicate that his court battles could significantly impact his chances. A Wall Street Journal poll released in December 2023 showed Trump ahead of Biden nationally, but if he is convicted, Trump falls behind Biden. Another New York Times-Siena College poll revealed that if Trump is convicted, Biden leads him among likely voters in six swing states.
For the Trump campaign, the 2024 election could become a race against the clock, with his four criminal trials looming over Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024. While prosecutors aim to expedite the trials, Trump’s lawyers have managed to delay some of them. The trial dates are still being determined, with Trump’s legal team arguing for immunity from prosecution.
Additionally, the Trump campaign will face another legal battle in the coming months regarding ballot access. The former president has been removed from primary ballots in Colorado and Maine, citing the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. The case in Colorado will be taken to the Supreme Court, potentially leading to another protracted legal fight for the Trump campaign.
Stay tuned as we continue to explore the issues shaping 2024 and beyond.
Click here to read more from the Washington Examiner.
How did Trump manage to turn the tax and bank fraud charges into a rallying cry for his supporters in August 2023?
Te April 2023. This boost in popularity was largely attributed to Trump’s ability to frame the charges as a politically motivated attack against him.
In August 2023, Trump faced a second indictment, this time from the state of New York. The charges involved tax fraud and bank fraud, stemming from an investigation into the Trump Organization’s financial dealings. Despite the gravity of these allegations, Trump managed to turn them into a rallying cry for his supporters. He claimed that the case was nothing more than a politically motivated witch-hunt by the “radical left” and the “deep state.” Once again, his defiance seemed to resonate with his base, and his poll numbers skyrocketed.
As the legal battles continued, Trump’s support within the Republican Party grew stronger. Many conservatives admired his ability to withstand what they perceived as unwarranted attacks from the justice system. They saw him as a fighter who was willing to take on the establishment, even if it meant facing legal scrutiny.
However, the dynamics began to shift in early 2024. The third indictment against Trump came from the District of Columbia, with charges of incitement of insurrection related to the January 6 Capitol riot. This indictment proved to be a turning point in public opinion. While Trump’s die-hard supporters remained loyal, there was a significant shift among independent and moderate voters. The events of January 6 had left a lasting impact on the nation, and many felt that Trump’s rhetoric had played a role in inciting the violence.
The final blow to Trump’s chances of returning to the White House came in May 2024, when he was indicted for obstruction of justice by a federal grand jury. The charges stemmed from his alleged attempts to impede the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. This indictment severely damaged Trump’s reputation and eroded his support even further.
Despite his initially strong position, Trump’s legal battles ultimately proved to be a roadblock to his presidential aspirations. While his base remained fiercely loyal, the indictments alienated a significant portion of the electorate. The controversies surrounding Trump’s legal troubles overshadowed his policy achievements and weakened his appeal to moderate voters. In the end, the former president’s divisive presidency and the legal cloud hanging over him proved to be insurmountable obstacles in his quest for the White House.
As we look ahead to the future beyond 2024, it is clear that the legal issues surrounding Trump will continue to shape the political landscape. Whether or not he decides to run for president again, the implications of his legal battles will remain a topic of debate and discussion. The American people will have to grapple with questions of accountability, justice, and the long-term impact of Trump’s presidency. Only time will tell how these issues will shape our nation in the years to come.
" Conservative News Daily does not always share or support the views and opinions expressed here; they are just those of the writer."
*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases
