GOP strategists caution that Trump’s errors in Iowa may have significant consequences.
Trump’s Mistakes in Iowa Could Have Devastating Consequences for His Campaign
After former President Donald Trump made what were considered two large mistakes in the pivotal early caucus state of Iowa, Republican political strategists say he may not be able to recover.
This week, Trump confirmed a reported feud with Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) when he called her out on social media for remaining neutral in the Republican candidate campaigns. “I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind, I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won. Now, she wants to remain ‘NEUTRAL.’ I don’t invite her to events!” the former president posted to Truth Social.
“There’s just an arrogance with Trump right now that he thinks he’s got it and he can bully people,” he said. “But I don’t think he can bully Kim Reynolds. And I think it’s a mistake for him to try.”
He isn’t alone in his opinion.
Fellow strategist David Kochel agreed that the mistake by Trump is “huge.” He noted that Trump has had luck in the past in these kinds of face-offs. “When he squares off against somebody, he almost always comes out on top,” he explained. “There’s one time when he didn’t, and that was [Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA)]. And I would say Kim Reynolds is a lot more [like] Brian Kemp.”
But this wasn’t Trump’s only misstep. On Friday, all of the key players in the 2024 Republican primary gathered at the Family Leadership Summit, an important event for conservatives and evangelicals in Iowa, put on by a prominent organization in state Republican politics. The only noteworthy candidate missing was Trump. His campaign blamed a scheduling conflict for this. Instead, they offered to send Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) on the former president’s behalf. The organization declined, as they don’t accept surrogates for campaigns.
“This is not what a typical Iowan primary voter likes,” explained Del Percio. “Donald Trump dissing Iowa this way could have repercussions, especially with the evangelical community.”
According to her, “there is going to be this question of maybe we just need to really get rid of Donald Trump in order to have a chance of bringing back what they consider their values.” And they just might start looking at Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) or former Vice President Mike Pence, who have both made their Christian faith central to their campaigns.
Whether each of the incidents, were they isolated, would have had a large impact on Trump’s posture in Iowa is unknown. But the two occurring subsequently all but guarantees that the news will make its way to voters — and they likely won’t be pleased, several strategists agreed.
“This is the type of thing that — and it’s a dangerous thing for Donald Trump — this will start bubbling up. It’ll trickle down and then bubble up,” Del Percio described. “What I’m saying is the information will reach everybody, and then they’re gonna mull on it and people are not gonna like it.”
Trump, who enjoys a double-digit lead over each of his Republican opponents, may have something to worry about if one of their campaigns capitalizes on his mistakes, they agreed.
“This slight shows his arrogance is leading his actions and may open a door, maybe for Scott,” said Felkel.
But, she noted, “they have to distance themselves from Trump” without doing so “in a nasty way.”
While several strategists see the moves as being potentially or likely devastating errors for his campaign, some note that this may not be the case.
Ron Bonjean conceded that “Trump is rolling the dice with this kind of bare knuckles strategy.”
And while he agreed that it may turn voters against him, he offered that one possibility is it “works and forces Republicans on the fence to his side.”
On Thursday, after the week’s events, Trump officially lost an endorsement from Republican state Sen. Jeff Reichman. “Trump is very outspoken. We’ve come to expect that, and that’s fine when it was focused at the right people,” he told the Des Moines Register in an interview. “And then this week, when it became focused on our governor … I felt like it was the right thing to do to look out for our governor, our home team here. Keeping that in mind, I decided to pull my endorsement for Trump.”
In a blow to the former president, Reichman moved to endorse his biggest rival in the race, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). “Gov. DeSantis has achieved the same type of commonsense policy victories in Florida as we have in Iowa under Gov. Kim Reynolds, and he will deliver historic success for the conservative movement as president as well,” he said.
In continuing his campaign’s less-than-apologetic tone when it comes to addressing the recent errors in the state, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement, “There is no room for weak-kneed and lily-livered people on Team Trump. Ron DeSanctimonious’ failing campaign is so desperate that he’s willing to offer buyouts in the form of fundraisers for endorsements. The truth is that those who have been promised financial support are now regretting their deal with the devil because none of them have been able to schedule fundraisers with DeSantis.”
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