What officials expect from Trump, despite being in the dark

An administration official familiar with the preparations told the Washington Examiner internal discussions about the speech had centered on election security and the subject of possible voting-machine vulnerabilities that could be susceptible to foreign cyber intrusions.

The official expected acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte to provide intelligence material and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to participate, as well as FBI Director Kash Patel, but cautioned that assessment was based partly on informed speculation, not a full briefing.

Notably, the source also downplayed claims on social media that purported the results of the 2020 election in Georgia would be declared “illegitimate.” Following Trump’s election defeat, Republican candidates in Georgia lost to Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, with the former senator having won another election in 2022.

A second source close to the FBI said bureau personnel as of Tuesday had not been read into a new election-interference finding as of the weekend of July 11 to 12. When that source asked whether the bureau needed to conduct preliminary work, the source was told no.

The source said the speech had originally been expected Tuesday, July 14, before being moved to Thursday. Some officials learned of the change through Trump’s Monday afternoon Truth Social announcing the speech.

Both sources said the speech could also increase pressure on the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, the Republican-backed bill requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.

Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt cautioned against advance reporting on the substance of the speech.

“As usual, anonymous sources are speculating about what President Trump will say during his speech on Thursday evening,” Leavitt said. “The truth is, nobody knows yet what President Trump will ultimately say, which is why everyone should tune in.”

Public record on 2020 election interference previously cast doubt on seismic impact

If Trump releases evidence that foreign actors altered votes or penetrated voting machines in 2020 in ways big enough to alter the outcome, it would mark a major break from the government’s public findings.

On March 16, 2021, under the Biden administration, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released an assessment finding no indication that a foreign actor attempted to alter voter registration, ballot casting, vote tabulation, or the reporting of results.

A companion report released that month by the Biden administration’s Justice and Homeland Security departments found no evidence that a foreign government prevented voting, changed votes, or compromised election infrastructure to manipulate the outcome.

Despite no major interference, those reports did not stray away from the level of influence foreign adversaries played on the race overall. They indicated Russia, Iran, and China each posed different election-related threats.

For example, Russian operatives used intelligence-linked intermediaries, purported news organizations, and fabricated social-media identities to promote allegations about Biden and amplify claims of election fraud. Russian hackers also compromised some state and local government networks and extracted voter information, although intelligence agencies said the intrusions were not used to alter election data.

From August through November 2020, during Trump’s first administration, Iranian operatives probed state election websites, stole voter information, and sent threatening emails to Democrats while posing as the Proud Boys. They also released a fabricated video purporting to show fraudulent overseas ballots, according to a November 2021 DOJ press release.

Eye-raising foreign interference plans for 2020 loom over announcement

Prior intelligence reports surrounding China’s planned intervention in the 2020 election remain one of the most politically explosive parts of the record.

The Biden administration’s March 2021 intelligence assessment said Beijing considered but did not deploy an operation intended to change the presidential outcome. But a dissenting intelligence official concluded China took at least some steps during the summer of 2020 to undermine Trump’s reelection prospects through public statements and media messaging.

Neither side found evidence that China interfered with voting machines or vote counting.

Separate FBI records released in 2025, during Trump’s second administration, showed the bureau briefly circulated raw intelligence alleging a more direct Chinese operation involving fake U.S. driver’s licenses and mail ballots.

The report, submitted by the FBI’s field office in Albany, New York, claimed the Chinese Communist Party had sent fake licenses to sympathizers in the United States who would vote for Biden. The FBI circulated the report Sept. 25, 2020, during Trump’s first administration, one day after then-FBI Director Christopher Wray testified that the bureau had not seen “any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort.”

FBI headquarters recalled the report the same day it was circulated and instructed personnel to delete it from bureau systems, according to records obtained by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. In a June 27, 2025, letter to Grassley, Assistant FBI Director Marshall Yates wrote that one reason cited internally was that “the reporting will contradict Director Wray’s testimony.”

The documents do not prove the alleged ballot scheme occurred. However, FBI personnel described the underlying information as uncorroborated and weighed whether the claim could itself be Chinese disinformation. But the records showed Albany agents objected to the recall, and Yates wrote that suppressing field-generated intelligence could prevent other intelligence agencies from corroborating or discrediting it.

The records also showed Customs and Border Protection had seized nearly 20,000 fake U.S. driver’s licenses, most from China and Hong Kong, at Chicago O’Hare in the first half of 2020. The FBI documents did not directly connect those seizures to the alleged voting scheme, but investigators described them as “logical investigative leads” that were not pursued.

Machine vulnerabilities remain a source of concern

Voting-machine vulnerabilities have also drawn scrutiny, even when investigators found no proof those weaknesses were exploited.

On June 3, 2022, under the Biden administration, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency disclosed vulnerabilities in certain Dominion ImageCast X ballot-marking devices but said it had “no evidence” they were exploited in an election.

But after Trump returned to office, then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s office obtained voting machines and data from Puerto Rico in May 2025 for forensic testing, a fact that was only reported earlier this spring, prompting commotion at the time about the administration’s plans for gathering the data.

Her office said it found concerning cybersecurity and operational practices but released few supporting details.

Yet that examination, revealed in April, was reported by Reuters to have shown no clear evidence of Venezuelan hacking, a theory that has loomed since 2020 among some Trump allies as a possible vulnerability at the time.

The Venezuela angle could draw renewed attention after the Trump administration’s arrest of Nicolas Maduro and expanded U.S. influence over Caracas this year. If Trump points Thursday to newly declassified material involving Venezuela, it would raise the question of whether U.S. officials gained access to information they did not have during prior investigations.

A last-ditch bid to pass the SAVE America Act?

Trump has made election law a central focus of his second term, so it will come as no surprise if he uses his speech Thursday evening to lob a last-ditch Hail Mary to see his signature election security bill passed despite its months of languishing in Congress.

The Republican-controlled House passed the SAVE Act on Feb. 11, 2026, but the measure has stalled in the Senate, where it lacks the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

Trump’s March 2025 executive order sought to require proof of citizenship for voter registration and bar counting mail ballots that arrive after election night. Federal courts have blocked major parts of the order, ruling the president cannot unilaterally rewrite election law.

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That timing is one reason some officials said they expected Thursday’s address to combine declassified intelligence with a renewed push for voting legislation.

Whether Trump releases evidence beyond previously disclosed influence operations, disputed intelligence and known machine vulnerabilities will not be clear until he speaks Thursday night.