Trump aims to solidify lead in primary polls despite Fulton County indictment.
2024 Republican Presidential Candidates Face Challenges Amid Trump’s Latest Indictment
Many 2024 Republican presidential candidates premised their campaigns on former President Donald Trump’s political demise.
But with Trump’s latest indictment poised to consolidate his support among the Republican base, that may have been a bad bet one week before their first primary debate.
Biden Heads to Wisconsin Neck and Neck with Trump
With the publication of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s 98-page indictment in Georgia, the public has a better understanding of Trump’s legal jeopardy amid the primary and before next year’s general election. But that understanding is unlikely to change the dynamics of the race, at least before more trials start, according to Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“We haven’t really seen any of the Republicans running against Trump change anything,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “Whenever Donald Trump has been indicted, it reinforces his messaging, which I’d say is false, but that ‘the system is rigged and a two-tier system of justice’ and all of that.
“But what we also see are that the people running against him don’t then use that against him as they would with any other opponent in any other campaign,” the former Republican National Committee spokesman said. “Not only do they not use it against him, they back his messaging up. They, ultimately, say, ‘My opponent is completely right and is being victimized.’ So what would change?”
Former Democratic operative Sandy Maisel agreed, noting the exception of Trump critics former Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, in addition to former Texas Rep. Will Hurd.
“They are afraid of the GOP base, not leading it,” the Colby College visiting politics instructor and one-time candidate said. “In so doing, they are making Trump stronger in the primary contest and giving themselves less of a chance.”
Candidates who are positioning themselves for Trump’s 35% of the party should he implode cannot depend on hope alone, per Heye, though he contended Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)’s campaign problems are due to “artificial” name identification, the former president’s attacks against him, and “outsized expectations in the media” instead of the indictments.
“Hope has never been a political strategy,” Heye said. “Again, in any other campaign, if your opponent, primary or general, gets indicted, you don’t hope something happens, you help make that happen. And what we’ve seen from those who are running against Trump, they’re more running against him in theory because they’re loathe to be critical of him.”
At the same time, President Joe Biden’s polling against Trump has not improved, remaining inside the margin of error. In a still hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the pair are neck and neck, with Biden leading by an average of less than a percentage point, 45%-44%.
“They’re both flawed and damaged candidates, even within their parties,” Heye said. “You have Democrats who support Biden but are not enthusiastic about him, and then you have candidates who otherwise would be completely marginal, certainly [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] as the best example, getting more than they otherwise would.”
But Maisel was adamant Trump’s indictments will impede him in the general election, particularly among independent voters, “even if trials are not held until after the election, as some surely will not be.”
“The cases against him … are strong, and his defenses are weak,” he said. “Again, why don’t more Republicans see this baffles me.”
Trump, who denies any wrongdoing, now must defend himself against a combined 91 federal and state criminal counts after an Atlanta grand jury indicted him and 18 co-defendants, including former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, as part of a two-year investigation into his efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. Trump faces 13 counts for violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, conspiring to impersonate a public officer, soliciting a public official to violate an oath, and filing false documents, such as by asking Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” almost 12,000 votes and his criticism of poll worker Ruby Freeman, with the former president unable to pressure the Justice Department to dismiss the state case or pardon himself if he is reelected.
“I don’t have any desire to be first or last,” Willis said. “We do want to move this case along, so we will be asking for a proposed order that occurs a trial date within the next six months.”
Trump has five trials tentatively set between now and May, with his E. Jean Carroll civil defamation lawsuit to start the same day as the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. His criminal cases will require his presence in the courtroom, drawing him away from the campaign trail, but his opponents have mostly defended him, promising to pardon him if he is found guilty of any federal charges.
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“As someone who’s running for President against Trump, I’d volunteer to write the amicus brief to the court myself: prosecutors should not be deciding U.S. presidential elections, and if they’re so overzealous that they commit constitutional violations, then the cases should be thrown out & they should be held accountable,” biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy wrote on social media.
Trump and his Fulton County co-defendants have until noon Aug. 25 to surrender, with the former president scheduled to hold a press conference at Bedminster, New Jersey, next Monday. The debate is next Wednesday.
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