Trump Trails DeSantis in Battleground States, Polling Shows
Despite a 37-criminal count indictment, former President Donald Trump’s support among Republican primary voters has barely budged. However, new polling reveals a concerning trend for his campaign. In three crucial battleground states that have historically leaned Democratic, Trump is trailing behind his chief 2024 presidential rival, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Worrying Signs for Trump’s Campaign
Polling conducted by Public Opinion Strategies indicates that DeSantis would defeat President Joe Biden in a matchup, while Trump would lose to Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. These three states will play a pivotal role in determining the next president of the United States and control of Congress. Another poll from CNN also suggests that support for the former president may be softening.
In Georgia, Biden received a 43% favorable rating compared to Trump’s 42% and DeSantis’s 37% favorable ratings. Notably, DeSantis had the lowest unfavorable rating at 43%, while Biden stood at 53% and Trump at 54%. Encouragingly for DeSantis, 48% of those surveyed expressed their intention to vote for him as president, while only 45% said the same for Biden.
In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, Biden garnered 47% of support compared to 44% for the former president. Another sign of possible Trump fatigue is that 54% of respondents believed DeSantis could beat Biden, while only 51% said the same for Trump. Additionally, 50% of those surveyed stated that they would never vote for Trump as president.
Pennsylvania, another crucial battleground state, saw Biden with the highest favorable ratings at 44%, followed by Trump at 39% and DeSantis at 35%. However, Trump also had the highest unfavorable ratings at 57%, with Biden at 53% and DeSantis at 45%. In a presidential matchup, DeSantis would once again defeat Biden, securing 47% of support to Biden’s 45%. Conversely, Biden would defeat Trump with 48% to 44% support.
When asked which candidate could defeat Biden, Trump and DeSantis were statistically tied at 53% and 52%, respectively. Furthermore, 53% of respondents stated that they would never vote for Trump as president.
Arizona, another battleground state, saw Biden with the highest favorable rating at 41%, followed by Trump at 39% and DeSantis at 34%. However, Trump had the highest unfavorable rating at 56%, with Biden at 54% and DeSantis at 41%. In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis received 46% of support compared to Biden’s 40%. When pitted against Trump, Biden garnered 44% of support while Trump received 41%.
Similar to Pennsylvania, Trump and DeSantis were statistically tied at 52% and 53%, respectively, when it came to who could defeat Biden. Additionally, 51% of respondents stated that they would never vote for Trump as president.
DeSantis, positioning himself as an alternative candidate to Trump, faces challenges in trying to dethrone Trump’s hold over the GOP base. Nevertheless, DeSantis and the super PAC supporting him, Never Back Down, are investing heavily in ad campaigns, door-knocking, and grassroots efforts in the early nominating primary states.
While Trump continues to dominate in polls among Republican primary voters, DeSantis remains a consistent second-place candidate, polling in the double-digits above lower-tier candidates.
The poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies took place from June 17-19 and surveyed 500 voters in each of the three battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
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