Key Democratic strongholds Republicans must capture in 2024.
Key States for Republicans in the 2024 Presidential Race
With a little over 16 months remaining until the 2024 presidential election, the Republican Party has an opportunity to focus on several crucial states that could determine the outcome of the race.
Both parties will strive to retain the states they won in 2020. However, if Republicans can successfully flip three traditionally Democratic strongholds, it would significantly narrow President Joe Biden’s path to victory.
VIRGINIA
Likely the toughest state to win back, Virginia has not voted Republican since the 2004 presidential election. However, if Republicans can flip the state in 2024, it would add 13 points to their Electoral College count.
In 2021, Republicans achieved a major victory in Virginia when Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) won the governor’s mansion, defeating Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic governor. This success came in a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
MINNESOTA
Minnesota, a Democratic stronghold, has consistently voted for Democrats in the past 12 presidential elections. With 10 Electoral College votes, it has been a reliable state for Democrats. However, Republicans came close to winning the state in 2016, with Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by a slim margin of 1.5%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
With only four Electoral College votes, New Hampshire may have the smallest value on this list. Losing either of the previous two states individually would not be a significant blow for Democrats in 2024. However, losing all three would cost Democrats 27 Electoral College votes, potentially giving an advantage to the Republican Party.
Nevertheless, a recent poll by St. Anselm College Survey Center showed that 49% of New Hampshire voters would choose Biden if the 2024 election were held today, while only 40% would vote for Trump as the Republican nominee.
As the Republican nomination race unfolds, former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, leading by 38% over his closest competitor, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), according to a recent poll. Other contenders include Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Vice President Mike Pence.
President Biden has already announced his intention to run for reelection in 2024. When asked if his campaign would be “nasty,” Biden jokingly replied that it would depend on “who the nominee is.”
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