Below is a breakdown of the “toss-up,” “lean Democratic,” and “lean Republican” states that will give each party a path to the Senate majority in November.

Toss Up: Alaska

Two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan will defend his seat against former Rep. Mary Peltola. Sullivan’s challenger was the last Democrat to represent Alaska statewide, serving in Alaska’s sole House of Representatives seat from 2023 to 2025.

Sullivan is a reliable conservative, though he has occasionally broken from President Donald Trump’s agenda on topics like the White House ballroom and the Department of Justice’s Anti-Weaponization Fund.

Peltola, meanwhile, has stressed her independent streak as an outdoorswoman and Yup’ik native. She is one of the few Democrats to have received a National Rifle Association endorsement in the past, though the NRA is backing Sullivan this cycle.

Trump won Alaska by 13 percentage points in 2024. Yet ranked choice voting, a strong candidate, and a fundraising advantage all give Democrats hope they can flip the seat. Peltola raised $7 million in the second quarter compared to Sullivan’s $2 million, but the GOP senator had $2.3 million more on hand as of late June.

The race also took an unexpected turn when Dan J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher, registered for the ballot. Republicans took that Sullivan to court, arguing that his political aspirations were a stunt to confuse voters who intended to vote for the similarly-named senator.

The Alaska Supreme Court greenlit his candidacy, however. Both Sullivans will appear on the ballot for the Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary, with Dan S. Sullivan’s box specifying that he is the incumbent. The top four vote getters will advance to the general election.

Toss Up: Ohio

Longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown is hoping to fight his way back to Capitol Hill. Brown served three terms before losing in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH). Now, Brown hopes to serve alongside Moreno.

Brown will face incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) in November. Husted has a long political record in his home state, having served as Ohio’s Secretary of State and lieutenant governor. The November election will be Husted’s first for the Senate, however. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed him in 2025 to replace then-Sen. J.D. Vance, who resigned to become vice president.

Ohio was formerly a partisan battleground, though the Trump effect has turned it into a reliably Republican state. Trump won Ohio by more than 11 percentage points in 2024, an increase from his 2020 showing in the state.

Yet Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recruited a strong candidate in Brown, who has the populist streak and Senate credentials to be a viable option in Ohio.

Given his political background, Brown is no stranger to fundraising. Brown brought in $14.1 million in the second quarter, walloping Husted by $10 million. He finished the quarter with $16.2 million on hand compared to Husted’s $9.4 million.

One factor that will make the Ohio Senate election even more of a nail-biter is Vivek Ramaswamy’s appearance on the top of the ballot. Ramaswamy, a long-shot presidential candidate turned brief Trump adviser, is hoping to succeed DeWine as governor. It remains to be seen whether the conservative firebrand’s campaign propels or pulls back Husted’s candidacy.

Toss Up: Michigan

Michigan’s Senate election is turning from a proxy battle between the Democratic Party’s progressive and institutional wings to a fight between the Republican and Democratic Parties more broadly.

Democrats are fielding 41-year-old progressive Abdul el Sayed. El Sayed has an impressive resume: he spoke before President Bill Clinton at his University of Michigan graduation ceremony and won a Rhodes Scholarship to study public health. He later challenged Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in the 2018 gubernatorial primary election, raking in just under a third of the vote.

Not every Democrat is dazzled by him, however. El Sayed only recently emerged from his hotly-contested primary election against Rep. Hailey Stevens (D-MI). Outside groups opposed to el Sayed’s candidacy poured vast sums into the election, including some $32 million in ads from the pro-Israel organization AIPAC.

El Sayed is the son of Michigan’s large Arab community, which may win him some support in November. Yet his progressive policies may prove out of step with voters in the midwestern swing state that Trump flipped by 1.4 percentage points in 2024.

For their part, major voices in the Democratic Party, including Stevens and Whitmer, quickly coalesced around el Sayed after the election.

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El Sayed will face former Rep. Mike Rogers in November. With incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) bowing out of reelection, Michigan is a target for national Republicans. Rogers narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) on the same 2024 ballot that Trump topped, a possible issue with voter enthusiasm.

Yet the real reason election observers will be watching the Michigan Senate primary is to see whether el Sayed will be able to coalesce the Democratic base, or whether Democrats will lose this critical seat for their Senate majority.

Toss Up: Maine

Maine, one of the most important pickups for Democrats, has proven a thorn in the party’s side. Democratic presidential candidates have won the popular vote in Maine since 1992, and one of the state’s two senators is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Those factors make the state an obvious Democratic target. Yet a candidate quality scandal embroiled Democrats over the summer, potentially jeopardizing their chances to defeat five-term Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

Gov. Janet Mills (D) and Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner were the two frontrunners for the Democratic nomination. Mills dropped out of the race in April, however, citing financial challenges. That left the race open for Platner, who had previously been a political unknown.

Platner rocketed to national attention through his made-for-social-media campaign style, which national political strategists helped to cultivate. But he also had his fair share of skeletons in his closet, including a Nazi tattoo and sexual assault accusations. The sexual assault scandals ultimately forced Platner to suspend his campaign in July.

Maine Democrats held a nominating contest in which they selected former state Senate President Troy Jackson as Platner’s replacement. Jackson, like Platner, is a populist progressive. Yet Democrats hope that Jackson does not have as big of a target on his back for Collins to exploit in November.

The November contest will test whether Jackson can make up for that lost time, or whether the Platner saga sunk Democratic chances in this pivotal seat.

Lean Democrat: Georgia

There was a period in Georgia politics in which it would have been unthinkable for both senators to be Democrats. That period ended with two January 2021 special elections where Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) both won election.

Warnock defended his seat successfully in 2022. Ossoff now hopes to do the same against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), a two-term congressman with a combative social media presence.

Critics have argued that Ossoff only succeeded in 2021 because he appeared on the ballot alongside Warnock, a prominent preacher in the state’s black community. Ossoff, the youngest member of the Senate, reportedly wavered on whether he’d run again because he wanted to spend more time with his wife and two children.

Ossoff has become a darling in the Democratic Party, however, with some pundits floating him as a possible 2028 presidential contender. Ossoff has repeatedly insisted that he isn’t interested in a White House bid.

Ossoff has also proven to be one of the Democratic Party’s most gifted fundraisers. He finished the second quarter with a $42 million war chest, a staggering figure compared to the $2.2 million in Collins’s coiffures. The national GOP has intervened in an attempt to prop Collins up financially, though Ossoff has saturated Georgia with television ads using his campaign cash.

Ossoff has harped on Collins’s relationship to his son-in-law, a white supremacist influencer. Collins, meanwhile, has criticized Ossoff for his hefty out-of-state fundraising. The November election will test whether Collins can overcome a formidable fundraising disadvantage in what has become a perennial swing state.

Lean Democrat: North Carolina

Democrats selected one of the best candidates possible in the North Carolina Senate races. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is a popular moderate, and he is widely expected to succeed outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in January.

Cooper is a veteran of the governor’s mansion, the attorney general’s office, and the state legislature. He was elected twice on ballots where Trump won North Carolina, first in 2016 and then in 2020. He has historically been a palatable choice for split-ticket voters, which may be a boon for his campaign in November.

Cooper’s opponent is former Republican National Committee and North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley. The GOP operative has Trump’s backing, which has proven decisive in races across the country.

“He is fantastic at everything he does, and he was certainly great at the RNC where, in the Presidential Election, we won every Swing State, the Popular Vote, and the Electoral College by a landslide!” Trump wrote last year on Truth Social, even before Whatley declared his candidacy. “But I have a mission for my friends in North Carolina, and that is to get Michael Whatley to run for the U.S. Senate.”

Whatley may have Trump’s valuable endorsement, but Cooper is more familiar to North Carolina voters than Whatley, who is still working to increase his name recognition across the state.

Lean Democrat: New Hampshire

As Democrats are doing in Ohio, New Hampshire Republicans are fielding a former senator as their pick to flip a seat held by the other party. Former Sen. John Sununu represented New Hampshire between 2003 and 2009 before losing reelection to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

Shaheen announced last year that she would not seek reelection. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is all but certain to be the Democratic nominee to replace her, though neither Pappas nor Sununu have won their primary elections yet.

The Sununu family is New Hampshire’s preeminent political dynasty. John’s brother, Chris, served as governor for four two-year terms. Their father, also a John, was governor in the 1980s and then chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush. The family has wide name recognition and deep political connections in the Granite State.

The November election will test that political clout. Though New Hampshire’s margins are closer than many other states, it has reliably fallen into the Democratic column in presidential elections. Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by 2.8 percentage points in 2024.

Voters in New Hampshire have not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 2000. Still, it would not be unprecedented for New Hampshire to send a Republican to the Senate. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) represented New Hampshire in the upper chamber until 2017.

Lean Republican: Iowa

Iowa was a swing state that twice backed President Barack Obama, though it has turned red under Trump. Democrats hope that state Rep. Josh Turek, a made-for-politics candidate, will give them a chance to flip this Senate seat.

He was born with spina bifida because of his father’s Agent Orange exposure in Vietnam. He is also a two-time Paralympic gold medalist.

Turek and his opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), are both vying to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).

Hinson was a broadcast journalist and state legislator before winning election to the House of Representatives in 2020. Her district covers much of southeastern Iowa, including Waterloo and Cedar Falls. The congresswoman received Trump’s coveted endorsement for the Senate seat.

“I know Ashley well, and she is a WINNER! A Loving Wife and Proud Mother of two sons, Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last year.

Hinson is the clear frontrunner in Iowa, which Trump won by more than 13 percentage points in 2024. Democrats hope that Turek’s inspiring backstory, as well as dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the agricultural trade war under Trump, could help them pick up the Hawkeye State.

Lean Republican: Texas

Texas is a recurring target for Democrats. They have poured resources into backing candidates like former Reps. Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred, all of whom have come up short in recent Senate races. The party hopes to reverse its fortunes this year.

State Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the party’s March primary election. Though Crockett has still not backed Talarico with the same enthusiasm that she has devoted to other candidates, the Democratic Party apparatus quickly backed Talarico.

The Republican nominating process was not nearly as clean.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) had hoped to retain his seat even as Trump lashed out at the four-term senator for perceived disloyalty. Cornyn’s most formidable challenge came from state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a polarizing figure in Texas politics. Cornyn and Paxton eliminated Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) and advanced to a May runoff election.

Trump provided Paxton a decisive boost when he intervened with an endorsement days before the runoff.

“Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN,” he wrote in a May Truth Social post. “Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.”

Paxton pummeled Cornyn by a 28-point margin, though not without both camps spending millions of dollars that could have been reserved for the general election. The primary race between the two men cost nearly $130 million, the highest sum of this cycle.

Democrats hope to exploit Paxton’s scandal-plagued record. The attorney general was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House of Representatives in 2023 for allegedly using his office to help a political benefactor. The Texas Senate acquitted him on all charges.

Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, has drawn attention to Talarico’s past comments on race, religion, and transgender issues.

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Yet Talarico nevertheless has proven to be one of the most effective fundraisers this cycle. Talarico finished the second quarter with $21.5 million in the bank as Paxton was working to rebuild his coiffeurs from almost nothing after his primary race.

“You’ll remember, I had a runoff that lasted until May 26,” Paxton said in a Newsmax appearance this week. “On the 27th, I had zero dollars left to spend. So my opponent had three months. He didn’t have a runoff, so he raised about 30 million from mostly California. If you go look at it, most of his money comes from out of state.”