Debt ceiling deal: who won and who lost?

The Senate Passes Bipartisan Bill to Raise Debt Ceiling

The Senate powered through a marathon voting session on a number of amendments to the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Thursday night, ultimately passing the bill to raise the debt ceiling and avoid economic collapse just days ahead of the Treasury’s default deadline.

The bipartisan bill is a result of grueling negotiations between Republicans and the White House, followed by an intense whip effort in the House earlier this week by Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to get enough members of his caucus on board to advance the legislation. The Senate was quick to pick up the bill the next day, allowing senators to vote on a series of amendments in an effort to force a vote on the legislation.

Debt Limit: The Government Spending Standoff That Could Come Next

Overall, the bill passed the House with a wide margin of 314-117 on Wednesday before cruising through the Senate with a 63-36 vote the next day. The legislation now heads to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature.

The deal is a result of bipartisan negotiations and compromises, meaning no one got everything they wanted. Here’s a breakdown of the winners and losers of the debt limit deal:

• President Joe Biden: Winner
• Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and the Freedom Caucus: Losers
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA): Winner — but not in the clear yet
• Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV): Winner — but at the expense of Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)

Winners and Losers of the Debt Limit Deal

President Joe Biden: Despite initially claiming he would not enter into any negotiations over the debt ceiling, a position Republicans frequently reminded him of, Biden agreed to come to the table to hash out a deal with McCarthy. The president appointed negotiators from the White House to work with McCarthy’s team to cut a deal that would preserve many of Biden’s key legislative victories in his Inflation Reduction Act. One of the top wins Biden secured was keeping nondefense spending at 2023 levels despite pushes from Republicans to return to 2022 levels over the next year. Biden also touted provisions that keep welfare program spending at similar levels, including no changes to eligibility for Medicaid or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for veterans or those who are homeless. In exchange for spending cuts, Biden was secured a debt ceiling increase that would last until January 2025 — in other words, he won’t have to deal with this problem again until the end of his term. That provision was a huge win for Biden and a source of ire for several Republicans who argue it will lead to unlimited spending.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and the Freedom Caucus: Several House Republicans, including a majority in the House Freedom Caucus, came out in staunch opposition to the bill, calling on their GOP colleagues to strike it down. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) was one of the first to disapprove of the agreement, arguing McCarthy compromised too much to reach a deal. In the days leading up to the House vote, Freedom Caucus members went on a massive whip effort to turn Republicans against the deal, insisting the party not settle for anything less than what was in their Limit, Save, Grow Act that passed just a month earlier. That effort failed after 149 Republicans voted in favor of the bill, roughly a majority of the caucus.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA): Like Biden, McCarthy emerged as one of the biggest winners of the debt ceiling deal after successfully navigating one of the most challenging leadership tests of his speakership thus far. The fact there were even negotiations in the first place cements McCarthy as a winner of the deal after Biden spent nearly three months refusing to meet or hash out a deal. McCarthy is also painting the deal itself as a major win for the GOP, pointing to several provisions that rein in government spending and reverse many of the Biden administration’s policies. The bill’s passage also highlights the power McCarthy has to ensure his caucus is unified behind a major issue, a strength many questioned after it took 15 rounds of voting to elect the California Republican as speaker in January. However, McCarthy’s not exactly in the clear yet. More Democrats than Republicans backed the bill for its final passage, stoking anger among hard-line conservatives who say it raises questions about the speaker’s loyalty to his own conference. That math could come back to haunt McCarthy, as there is already some rumbling among conservatives on the House Freedom Caucus to consider a motion to vacate, a GOP source told the Washington Examiner. No GOP member has followed through on those threats, and McCarthy has repeatedly brushed off suggestions that he would be ousted from his leadership position.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV): Talks over the debt limit deal dragged on for days, largely in part because of disagreements over energy-permitting reforms. Negotiators eventually came to an agreement to greenlight all remaining permits for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project — angering environmental activists but coming as a victory for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Manchin has pushed for months to approve the 300-mile natural gas pipeline that would transfer methane gas across parts of Virginia and West Virginia. Although the provision comes as a win for Manchin, it comes at the expense of one of his Democratic colleagues: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA). Kaine was furious over the project’s inclusion in the deal, arguing such a move bypasses the judicial and administrative review process it would typically need to go through. The West Virginia Democrat also lamented that he was not informed the pipeline would be part of the deal even though it would run through parts of his state.

Overall, the debt limit deal is a significant win for both parties, but it remains to be seen how it will play out in the long run.