The West Isn’t Scared of Ukraine Beating Russia Anymore
Has the West lost all fear about a Ukrainian victory now? – The collective West has existed for a long time hesitated Ukraine needs to be supplied with offensive weapons This might seem to be an escalatory response to the Russian aggressor Precipitate a nuclear strike.
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This is where the problem lies: The effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear threats Moscow is incentivised to repeat its threats by inducing Western vacillation (understandable given the potential dire consequences). The West has been unable to decide whether to offer Ukraine enough military assistance to prevent defeat or if it wants to give sufficient aid to win the war. A major Western concern was that a significant Ukrainian victory such as the planned liberation of Crimea might lead to a nuclear strike. Accordingly, the West could not formulate clear objectives and a logical response to Russia’s aggression.
Ramstein-9 in Ukraine
The January 20th meeting of the Ramstein-9 Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which included 51 countries, has clearly triggered a seismic shift in Western thinking. This Group was formed to supply Ukraine with heavy offensive weapons in sufficient quantities to ensure an Armed Forces of Ukraine victory. The Group’s actions can be understood as the liberation of all Russian-occupied territories to the internationally recognized borders of 1991. Many Western experts believe that there is very little chance of Russia launching a nuclear attack. China And India have spoken against a nuclear strike, and a worldwide economic embargo against Russia would stay the Kremlin’s hand, not to mention military actions that the US or NATO Countries might consider.
Germany has become a major provider of military aid and has seen its political opinions change the most. Germany was once the most reluctant country to send military assistance. However, Germany The Ukrainian government has not allowed allied states to purchase stocks of Leopard 2 tanks and transfer them to Ukraine. The Leopard tanks are most easily available and most suitable for Ukrainian conditions. A number of the 13 countries with the Leopard offer to provide tanks. Poland is open to sending 100 or more tanks right away. Despite the recent Russian missile terror attack on an apartment building in Kiev, at least 44 civilians were killed, and more injured, the German government continues to refuse to approve transfers.
After making impressive gains in the Kharkiv-Khorasy region in September and Oct, the AFU was unable continue because of insufficient equipment, logistical capacity, rainy conditions, and the Russian tactic to throw masses of amnestied convicts or other social marginals against AFU lines. Russian vacillation and this tactic allowed them to win. President Vladimir Putin to keep his army and the public in the hope of a final Russian victory.
While the AFU’s advances were stalled, relentless Russian attacks on the Donbas towns of Bakhmut Although it was very expensive and gained little territory, Soledar in east managed to stop the AFU’s attempts to launch offensives in the South. This gave the Russians more time to train their reserves. According to the Kremlin, an initial mobilization of 200,000 people is expected. 300,000 menThis could increase to 500,000 by the spring/summer, or more, in addition to the roughly 150,000 to 200,000 people already living in Ukraine. It will now be more expensive and difficult for Ukraine to launch an offensive in spring than it would have been previously.
Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was the AFU’s top general and had stated in December that to launch a major offensive, the AFU would need 300 more main battle tanks, 500 artillery pieces and 600 armored combat vehicles. The Ramstein-9 meeting has gone a long way toward meeting Zaluzhnyi’s request, and seems to mark a turning point in Western policy.
Political significance is a major factor in the Ramstein-9 meeting. The West has sent equipment that is clearly offensive and large quantities for the first time. The West seems to have overcame fear of a Ukrainian victory. It has made an unreversible commitment to support Ukraine.
Military significance means that the AFU is likely to be able reach the Azov sea coast and block the Russian land corridor to Crimea. The Russian strategic position in Ukraine’s south is inherently poor, inasmuch as the Russian army is stretched over a front that is long and narrow. The AFU will seek to identify a weak spot in the front. If successful, it will reduce the Russian army by half. Russian forces west of that point will also be cut in half.
The Russians know this possibility. Their attempts to fortify Melitopol, in the west, and Crimea to south seem half-hearted. The main Russian efforts are likely to be in the Donbas, a political objective of Putin’s long standing, and further north, in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, which border Russia and offer favorable logistics.
After nearly a year, however, the Russian army is in serious decline. The Russian army has almost lost its entire initial supply of modern tanks, armored vehicles and other weapons. Artillery barrels that were free for all have become ill-equipped and inaccurate due to the free-forall artillery barrages. Many of the top junior officers as well as large sections of the army’s professional armies have been lost. The Russians seem to be limited to only three strategies. The Russians will continue to pursue one strategy. missile terror attacks On Ukrainian civilian areas. These attacks will be especially common because Ukraine won’t have any defense against the supersonic Kh-22 rocket for several months, unless a few Patriot antimissile systems are installed in place and personnel trained for them. However, this strategy can be used to remove and refurbish Soviet-era tanks or artillery equipment. This is technically challenging.
The third – main – strategy will be to throw masses of infantry against the AFU lines and to overcome these lines through sheer weight of numbers. This very costly tactic showed some success in Bakhmut and Soledar – success in the sense that the Russian infantry proved its ability to keep pressing despite phenomenal human losses. This tactic is able to be used by the Russian military and political commands because they are completely indifferent to losses. The majority of fighting and death in the east has been caused by non-Russians such as Buryats or Udmurts. These Russian social marginals come from Russia’s prisons and the poorest regions of Russia. Also, there are soldiers from Donetsk and Luhansk Republics as well as civilians conscripted from areas of Ukrainian occupation. The large, ethnic-Russian-dominated middle classes in the major cities have remained relatively unaffected by mobilization and the Kremlin has been capable of managing any emergence anti-war sentiment.
What happens next?
The stage is set for major bloodbaths in spring. There are important questions. The list for the Ukrainian side is much shorter. The Ukrainians are fighting to survive against explicit genocide Russia has made it clear that the Ukrainians are not to be submissive. The latest round of offensive weapons has increased their fighting spirit and morale. The Russian mobilizations continue to be a surprise and intimidation for the Ukrainians. However, some Ukrainian military experts believe steel will triumph over flesh as per the historical trend. Although Ramstein-9 indicates that fatigue is not an issue at the moment, Western fatigue could become a major imponderable in the long-term.
Russian side, the list of imponderables seems longer. First, it isn’t certain that recruiting will succeed and that the army can provide soldiers with adequate personal equipment, vehicles and weapons. The question of whether Russia can increase its war industry capacity in the face of the threat from NATO is another. sanctions component prices and the overall decline in the economy. The ammunition stock is also in decline and may not be replaceable.
The conduct of the war is the last, perhaps most important, issue facing the Russian side. After a year’s worth of fighting and expense, the AFU will block the Russian landbridge to Crimea. This will mean that the Putin regime will have almost nothing. This will lead to recriminations within the Russian army and public. Putin’s authority will inevitably decline, though by how much remains to be seen.
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It seems that Ramstein-9 is making it possible for a complete Ukrainian military victory to be both possible and realistic.
Dennis Soltys Almaty is home to a retired Canadian professor in comparative politics.
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