The War in Ukraine has become a bloodbath. Could It Be Over by 2023?
Note: This is Part II of a 3-part series. You can read part I here. You can also read part III here. With the advent of winter After the end of the two major phases, both sides are now preparing for the next phase. Both Russia as well as Ukraine have suffered. significant casualties On the battlefield. The final result next phase – and possibly the war – may be decided by events currently taking place well away From the frontlines.
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For more than three months now, the Russians have been engaging in a systematic long-range bombing campaign to cripple or destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in an attempt to severely constrain Kyiv’s ability to sustain its troops in the field and move reinforcements when needed. Though Ukrainian engineers are working heroically to repair the damage from each round of rocket, missile, and artillery attack, almost half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed.
Its burden has been the most prominent focus. on the civil population – frequent blackouts, loss of running water, and little to no heat – but the attacks have done less obvious damage to Ukraine’s military capacity. Factories have a difficult time keeping the electricity on to produce goods, workers can’t reliably get on electrified trains and subway systems to get to work, war material – including ammunition delivered from the West – is having a hard time getting to the front.
Due to combat losses, Ukraine currently has to perform another major mobilization of its male populations, which further complicates domestic production capacity. With fewer men working, more jobs are not being filled. The United Nations also estimates that there are approximately 1.2 million unfilled jobs worldwide. almost nine million Since the beginning of war, thousands of Ukrainians have fled to Ukraine. Ukraine’s GDP plunged by 41% in November; worse is likely in the new year as Russia’s missile attacks will likely continue. Russia is in sharp contrast.
Even though Ukraine has begun striking targets deeper in Russia in recent weeks, their effects have thus far had marginal effects on Moscow’s war-making capacity. Despite unprecedented global sanctions The effects of Russia’s actions have been limited, and their economy is expected grow. shrink by only 3% For 2022. Moscow mobilized not only its army recruits, but also partly. mobilized its industry. Russia is a more important partner than Ukraine in its maintenance, equipment, and ammunition needs. ramped up Its domestic production of all types of war-making material.
Putin has announced plans for the future, including the immediate addition of 300,000. active force by 500,000 Above 2021 levels (though the full extent of this buildup will be realized over many years). The Russian civil society has not been affected by the near daily attacks Ukraine is subject to on its civil infrastructure.
All of its energy systems work. Its domestic economy is generally balanced. Russia’s population is not suffering from blackouts, lack of heat, and none of its people have been forced abroad. The West can continue supplying many of Ukraine’s needs, but the supply will remain sporadic, unpredictable, and almost certainly won’t meet the identified demands of Ukrainian leaders.
Russia’s domestic production is increasing but it is still dependent on its international partners. Recently, Iran has sent a report saying that Russia relies more heavily on them. thousands of drones And short-range missilesWhile North Korea is said to have sent another, weapons and ammunition. The key to determining which side wins the war is which side can endure the most. Each side has dealt blows to the other, and both have survived. It is now a question of how prepared are Russia and Ukraine to handle the next round and which side will be able to sustain them and stay viable.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said Ukraine is willing to discuss UN-sponsored peace talks – so long as Russia is first subjected to a war crimes tribunal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia is willing to hold peace talks – so long as Kyiv is first willing to cede all the territory Russia “annexed” This year, earlier.
There is, if we’re being honest, zero chance either country will agree to the demands of the other in the foreseeable future. In parallel, Ukraine continues to seek out better offensive weapons, while Russia builds up its combat forces. Both sides believe they have the chance to win military successes on battlefields that will disadvantage their opponents and place them in a stronger negotiation position.
So, unless one side experiences so much pain on the battlefield, that they believe there is no way to achieve any positive military outcomes for their side, the fighting will go on. War is at its core an act of defiance.
The Ukrainian people are so determined that they will not allow Russia to keep any territory that it has taken from them since 2014, their will is unwavering. Russian will is equally firm in its determination to continue fighting until it secures all the territory that it has taken since 2014. It is a terrible fact that both sets can exist simultaneously and that the war will go on. To end war, either the Russians or Ukrainian populations must be moved away from their current extreme position and willing to compromise.
Especially when it comes to the sometimes fickle will and mood of a nation’s population, it is impossible at this point to guess how bad things would have to be for one side’s people that would prompt them to change their currently stout position. Although it is possible to predict the outcome of the conflict’s events over the next four to six months, it is nearly impossible to make an educated guess. That harsh reality makes setting American policy difficult – but also vitally important – as the president must keep U.S. interests and security safe under all circumstances.
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19FortyFive Contributing editor, Daniel L. Davis A Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities, he is also a former Lt. Col. of the U.S. Army and was deployed in combat zones four different times. He is also the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis
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