The Real Reason Obamacare Enrollment Is Down Is Thanks To Trump’s Fraud Crackdown

To hear the Left’s rhetoric during last fall’s government shutdown, one would have thought that the December 31 expiration of enhanced Obamacare subsidies came one step away from Armageddon. Shockingly, the predictions of disaster haven’t materialized.

Before Easter, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the final report regarding the 2026 open enrollment period. The CMS data show marginal differences in coverage numbers, but no dramatic changes, illustrating the wisdom of Congress allowing the enhanced subsidies to expire as scheduled.

Enrollees Removed

Overall, CMS reported that 23.1 million enrollees selected Exchange plans during the open enrollment period, or were automatically re-enrolled in coverage. That represents a slight reduction of 1.2 million enrollees compared to last year, but an increase of 6.7 million compared to 2023 under the Biden Administration.

More to the point: The release accompanying the report noted that during 2025, CMS “ended…[subsidies] or coverage for nearly 1.5 million people found to be either ineligible for financial assistance, or enrolled without their authorization.”

Translation: Eliminating the 1.5 million fraudulent people who enrolled in 2025 means that coverage numbers may have actually increased compared to last year’s open enrollment period. Or, to put it another way, Democrats who complain about “coverage losses” this year are really complaining that the Trump Administration cracked down on fraud and ineligible enrollees on the Exchanges.

Coverage Changes

The report did show a 10-point decrease in enrollment in Silver plans, along with an accompanying 10-point enrollment increase in Bronze plans, which generally carry higher deductibles. Democrats might cite this data point as evidence of an Exchange “crisis,” which they believe will become more apparent as the year goes on and individuals drop coverage without the enhanced subsidies. (The CMS report only examined people who selected a plan, as opposed to people who confirmed enrollment by paying their first month’s premium.) But a 10-point shift, like the enrollment changes, falls more into the category of “modest” than disastrous.

Recall that multiple studies from leftist think tanks showed the average financial effect of the enhanced subsidies’ expiration came to between $50-$100 per month. The CMS report noted an increase in average monthly premiums of $62 per month, or $744 annually. That’s not nothing, particularly for a family of modest means. But it also wouldn’t constitute a catastrophe for most families, given that the original Obamacare subsidy regime established in 2010 remains in place.

Serious Fraud Concerns

Recall too the many reasons Congress had to allow the enhanced subsidies to expire. Numerous experts, from the Government Accountability Office to the Congressional Budget Office and others, have noted serious problems with fraud on the Exchanges. The zero-dollar premium plans included as part of the enhanced subsidies encouraged people to game the system for “free” coverage, or provided no incentive for people to disenroll when they obtained access to other insurance, such as through a new employer.

Indeed, CMS’ report explained that during 2025, it had disenrolled over one million people who enrolled in duplicate forms of coverage (i.e., both Medicaid and Exchange subsidies) or failed to file tax returns, to reconcile the subsidy amounts they received (which are based on projected income) with the subsidies they should have qualified for given their actual income. Coupled with the $350 billion (plus interest) price tag associated with the enhanced subsidies’ extension, congressional Republicans made the correct choice to let this Covid-era program expire — just as Democrats were right to let the Covid-era enhanced child tax credit expire on their watch.

Setting Priorities

With Washington facing deficits near $2 trillion as far as the eye can see, lawmakers need to set priorities. And while people like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) might tweet articles noting the effect of the enhanced subsidies’ expiration on early retirees, some observers — including this one—would argue that taxpayers have better things to spend their hard-earned dollars on than allowing someone to retire on the government’s dime in their 50s.

As someone who has enrolled on the Exchanges (without a subsidy) for many years, I can attest that the coverage provided shows how Obamacare stands as the Un-Affordable Care Act. Perhaps now that they have let the enhanced subsidies expire, Congress could do something about the underlying cost of care, rather than continuing to throw unending sums of taxpayer money in a fruitless attempt to “solve” the problem.