Could Benson keep Michigan blue?

“Michigan has actually not elected a Democrat to succeed another Democrat as governor since 1960—a streak that would seem to caution against designating Benson as a favorite,” writes Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which recently shifted the race from toss-up to leans Democratic. “But these kinds of historical patterns are not set in perpetuity—Pennsylvania, for instance, had a steady eight-years-and-out rhythm for much of the postwar era, which held up until it was broken in 2014.

“Consolidation on the gubernatorial primary’s Republican side, combined with a clear Democratic front-runner in Benson… has made the governor’s race look more favorable for Democrats than it did in the spring,” it continues.

Some political strategists believe voter angst about President Donald Trump’s policies, particularly over surging gas prices in Michigan, sparked by the Iran war, could hurt Republican gubernatorial contenders James or Johnson in November. No matter who the nominee is, it will be a tough cycle for the GOP, Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told CBS News.

“Anyone who isn’t being paid to say otherwise will concede that 2026 is going to be a very difficult year for Republicans,” he said.

On the Democratic side, Benson is viewed as somewhat of the natural heir to Whitmer, having served in state government during the entirety of the outgoing governor’s administration. Still, she sought to distinguish herself from Whitmer in several ways, as historical trends show voters could favor a political shift in November.

If she were elected, Benson has pledged to sign nine bills into law that Whitmer recently vetoed due to concerns they would create “insurmountable administrative burden” and “endless litigation.” Benson has decried “political games” and said she would sign the same bills into law as governor.

Benson has also suggested she’ll focus on differentiating herself from Whitmer’s approach to the economy. While Whitmer has pressed corporate subsidies and advocated for manufacturing advancements, Benson has harped on the importance of diversifying the economy to help small businesses.

“I understand the importance of bringing manufacturing into the state, respecting and growing our legacy economies, certainly, but I also want to diversify our economy,” Benson said. “That’s something that I want to spend more focus on as governor than I think past governors might.”

Benson has also sought to differentiate herself on housing. In her final State of the State address in late February, Whitmer appeared to endorse bills that would overhaul zoning requirements statewide, and called for a “state-level affordable housing tax credit” to subsidize construction “for working-class families.” Benson told reporters the following month that Whitmer’s proposal is “an important one” but added “we want to build on that” by “eliminating a lot of the long-standing certification processes” in order to get housing developments breaking ground more quickly.

Benson faces primary challenge

Benson appears to hold a massive lead in the race, according to polling, and is largely backed by the establishment, including former Democratic governor Jim Blanchard. She will have to defeat Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson in the primary next week before advancing to the general election. Her top Democratic rival says he’s been leading the sheriff’s office for over 30 years and served as a faculty member for the University of Michigan Flint in public health for nearly three decades.

Despite his underdog status, Swanson painted himself as the candidate with the best chance of keeping the governor’s seat blue in the general election and attracting needed Republican votes in November during an interview with CBS News.

“I’m predicting a six- to eight-point primary victory, and then a double-digit November win because I can pull Republicans back, I can pull people that Mike Duggan was trying to get into the independent space, as with the democratic base,” he said, referring to Duggan, the Democrat turned independent who made a gubernatorial bid before dropping out of the race in May.

Both Benson and Swanson say they view data centers as necessary, while both back expanding guardrails in the industry.

Swanson has proposed dividing the state into three zones, signaling whether areas are open or closed for data centers.

“You divide the state up in three colors: yellow, red, and green,” he told 9and10 News. “Yellow means that there’s infrastructure baseline, and there’s a desire for new manufacturing, new industry. That’s where investors can look and say, ‘Okay, we can go there. There’s some potential.’ Red means no infrastructure, or they have no desire for any industrial manufacturing. So don’t go to these cities and towns. Don’t try to force it down their throat, no matter how much land is available. And third is green, meaning infrastructure, and they’re open for business.”

On healthcare, Swanson believes Michigan should be “a state where everybody has a baseline healthcare option,” while Benson says she backs expanding transparency in medical billing and passing a $5,000 caregiver tax credit.

On housing, Benson says she wants to streamline regulations that slow down construction, increase assistance for first-time homebuyers, “crack down on corporate investors who buy up properties,” and expand the Michigan homestead property tax credit. Swanson has focused on building more housing units, as at least 160,000 more houses are needed in order to create a competitive market. Swanson wants to see 10,000 new housing units built in the first 24 months of being elected to office, should he win in November.

Republicans derail into messy primary battle

On the Republican side, James has been viewed as the frontrunner leading up to the Aug. primary. He holds Trump’s endorsement, as well as that of former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, who recently dropped out of the gubernatorial race. But businessman Perry Johnson has been giving him a bitter fight for the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination to succeed Whitmer.

Polling indicates James holds a lead ahead of Tuesday. But Johnson has warned that James is set to lose to Democrats in the general election, pointing to his losses in two statewide elections before he won a House seat in 2023. James lost U.S. Senate races in 2018 and 2020 to Democratic incumbent Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters (D-MI). James poured around $140 million into the two races yet still fell short, Johnson warned last month, urging voters not to give his rival a third chance for the November election.

Johnson mounted his own short-lived bids for governor in 2022 and president in 2024.

The gubernatorial race has been defined by bitter personal attacks, from infidelity allegations, “nepo baby” claims, and racially charged comments directed against James, a black candidate, to Johnson’s lawsuit contending that James’s campaign logo that read “John James Governor” was misleading to voters. That lawsuit forced James to rebrand his campaign materials.

ABDUL EL SAYED VOWS TO TAKE ON SCHUMER AS LEFT-WING CANDIDATES GAIN MOMENTUM

Johnson has proposed eliminating the state income tax, backed a one-year data center moratorium, and blasted James for taking campaign donations from data center developers. James has focused on expanding local control over data center development and proposed a 20% to 25% income tax cut.

James has also proposed requiring all schools to post their curricula online and creating a “parental bill of rights” addressing transgender students, which would ban biological males from girls’ locker rooms, bathrooms, and sports teams.