The Power of the Trump Endorsement: Myth or Magic?

Analysis

Several polling outlets are predicting that Republicans will take control of both the House and possibly the Senate in the 2022 primaries. While some individuals are attributing the GOPs pending 2022 primary success to the power gained by candidates backed by Donald Trump, others say the former president’s endorsements will have little effect.

As noted by FiveThirtyEight, “One of the most ironclad rules in American politics is that the party of the president in office always loses ground in midterm elections.”

In the meantime, a series of polls between July 5-25 show the job approval rating for President Joe Biden is consistently flailing between 33 percent and 45 percent. More drastic are the polls between June 12 and July 25 showing that anywhere between 70 percent to 87 percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Between June 28 and July 26, polls showed 52 to 68 percent of those surveyed disapprove of Biden’s handing of the economy. On foreign policy, 52 to 61 percent disapprove of Biden’s job performance, and anywhere from 52 and 63 percent disapprove of Biden’s handing of the immigration crisis.

Trump Endorsements: Wins vs. Losses Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at The Farm at 95 in Selma, N.C., on April 9, 2022. (Allison Joyce/Getty Images)

An analysis of wins verses losses for Trump-backed candidates as of July 25 by Ballot Pedia shows the overwhelming majority of Trump’s anointed candidates going on to win their respective elections.

Of the 19 gubernatorial candidates for 2022 elections, 10 have won their primaries. Only three have lost. The remaining six are pending.

Of the 132 candidates backed by Trump running for seats in the U.S. House—consisting mostly of incumbents—95 have won their primaries, two have advanced to a runoff, one was removed, and another withdrew before