Republicans are behind in crucial Senate races despite Trump’s lead

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in most polls in key swing states, but in many of those states’ pivotal Senate races, GOP candidates are lagging behind.

An Emerson College-the Hill poll released on Tuesday shows Trump leading Biden in seven swing states, while in five of those states’ Senate races, the leading Republican candidate is behind the Democrat.

In Pennsylvania, the former president holds a 47%-45% lead over Biden, but Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) holds a 46%-42% lead over GOP challenger David McCormick. The Senate race has narrowed in the Keystone State in recent months, according to the pollster, with a February survey showing Casey holding a 10% lead.

In Wisconsin and Nevada, both incumbent Democratic senators who are attempting to fend off Republican challengers are leading, while Trump maintains a lead over Biden. In the Badger State, Trump leads Biden 47%-45%, while Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leads Republican Eric Hovde 46%-43%. In the Silver State, Trump has a 45%-44% lead over Biden, while Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has a 45%-37% lead over Republican Sam Brown.

In open seats currently held by senators who caucus with Democrats, Republicans are also trailing the Democratic candidates, according to the survey.

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In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake 45%-43% in the Senate race, while in the presidential race, Trump leads Biden 48%-44%. In Michigan, Trump leads Biden in the presidential race 45%-44%, while in the Senate race Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 42%-40%.

In the five of the states where Trump is leading, he lost to Biden in 2020, and in all those states, except Wisconsin, Republicans have lost the most recent Senate races in either 2020 or 2022.