Republicans Polling at 48% on Generic Ballot in Competitive Districts to Dems’ 43%

I reported last week how even in a CNN poll, the generic ballot in the battleground states was looking good for the Republicans. Among likely voters in competitive districts in the poll, 48 percent would support the Republican candidate, while only 43 percent would support the Democrats. It’s the battleground states that are going to decide this election.

Now, a new Rasmussen poll has some more numbers that show the generic ballot is even better than that, with a huge gain in the past week for the GOP. Rasmussen already had Republicans with a four-point lead over Democrats in their polling last week. But now they said likely voters prefer Republicans 48 to 41 percent, with seven percent not sure. That’s almost double what it was just last week.

But it’s not just Rasmussen that has the Republicans up — three other polls also have them up by good numbers as well, even a CBS/YouGov poll.

2022 Generic Ballot: 4 consecutive polls show GOP ahead among LIKELY voters

Harvard/Harris
Republicans 53% (+6)
Democrats 47%

Rasmussen
Republicans 48% (+7)
Democrats 41%

CBS/YouGov
Republicans 47% (+2)
Democrats 45%

Trafalgar
Republicans 48% (+5)
Democrats 43% pic.twitter.com/rzMGuRYlQG

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 16, 2022

The gap is significant because “generic ballot” polls typically underestimate the size of Republican support. Several GOP pollsters have said that a Democratic lead of 3 points, for example, typically signals a big GOP win.

For example, GOP pollster Ed Goeas recently said, “One of the things we’ve always noticed is if the generic ballot is within 5 points, usually that means we pick up some seats.”

He added: “What we have known on the generic ballot, and this has held year after year after year, if it’s a generic balance within 3 points, it usually means we’re winning enough districts that we take control of Congress.”

So the support is likely higher than even the poll is suggesting.

What’s causing the movement? Gas prices are going back up again, inflation is continuing to surge with no end in sight and Americans see that Biden and the Democrats seem to have no idea how to deal with it. Republicans are concentrated on inflation and the economy as their top issues, and those are the top issues for Americans. Meanwhile, Democrats are talking about everything else but, pushing things like Jan. 6 and abortion, rather than the issues of greatest concern to Americans.

As the time winds down, the Democratic candidates themselves are imploding and unable to detach themselves from the anchor which is Joe Biden, like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in Georgia. Biden seems completely oblivious to Americans’ main concerns, saying things like “the economy is stronger than hell.” It’s like spitting into the eye of Americans who are struggling with all the costs that Bidenflation has wreaked on them.

Break out the popcorn, I think the wave is going to be good.

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