Republicans fear a three-way Senate race in Arizona could tilt contest toward Democrats
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s Potential Impact on Arizona’s Election
When Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) left the Democratic Party last year to become an independent, political experts predicted that her decision could benefit a Republican candidate in the upcoming election. However, recent polling suggests that Sinema might actually draw more Republican voters than Democrats in a potential three-way race in Arizona, a state with a fairly equal distribution of Republicans, independents, and Democrats.
Sinema has not yet confirmed whether she will run for reelection, but if she does, she would likely face Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a Democratic progressive, and Kari Lake, a controversial conservative who lost the gubernatorial election last year.
The Battle for Arizona’s Senate Seat
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is making efforts to sway GOP voters away from Sinema and Gallego with a new ad titled “A Choice.” The ad claims that Sinema votes with President Joe Biden “100% of the time,” conveniently ignoring the challenges she has posed to his agenda. It also targets Gallego, delving into his personal life and divorce from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.
“National Democrats are fighting a lose-lose civil war over who they’ll make their standard bearer: Rotten Ruben Gallego or liberal rubber stamp Kyrsten Sinema. Arizonans deserve better,” said NRSC spokesman Tate Mitchell.
While national Republicans are attempting to turn the race into a battle between a Republican and two Democrats, some in the state doubt the effectiveness of this strategy.
“I’m just not sure that’s going to work as a strategy overall,” said an anonymous Arizona Republican. “Many voters here know Sinema has caused massive headaches for the president with his Build Back Better agenda and the filibuster, so these kinds of attacks just unfortunately aren’t based in reality.”
Concerns are rising among Republicans that Gallego might emerge as the next senator of Arizona due to the three-way race, which would be a nightmare scenario for them.
However, some believe that the personal attacks against Gallego could backfire, especially since his relationship with his ex-wife is described as “cordial.”
Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Arizona operative, believes that Sinema has limited appeal among Democratic voters but could attract more Republicans who are reluctant to support a candidate like Lake, known for alienating moderates in the state.
“Whereas on the Republican side, you know, she’s been this source of compromise, which makes herself available to those centrist voters who want to see progress who are frustrated with government,” Coughlin said of Sinema.
An internal memo from Sinema’s team suggests that she aims to win a second term by securing a portion of Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters.
Despite recent polling showing Gallego leading the race, largely due to Lake losing Republican votes to Sinema, the situation remains uncertain. Democrats, however, are feeling optimistic about their chances.
Barrett Marson, a Republican operative, believes that if Sinema runs, she will undoubtedly draw votes from Republicans. However, he advises against placing too much emphasis on current polling since Sinema has not officially announced her candidacy. Republicans are nonetheless preparing for her potential appearance on the ballot.
“There’s almost 11 and a half months until Election Day, so a lot can change between now and then,” Marson said. “When Sinema starts spending money, touting all her wins, I think you’ll see her poll numbers will probably get better.”
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How does Sinema’s independent status affect her approval ratings among likely Arizona voters?
Rtunately fall flat.”
This sentiment is echoed by polling data, which suggests that Sinema’s independent status may actually be an advantage in Arizona. A recent poll conducted by the Phoenix-based firm OH Predictive Insights found that 50% of likely Arizona voters approved of Sinema, while only 34% disapproved. In contrast, Gallego only had a 23% approval rating, with 24% disapproving.
While Sinema may draw more Republican voters, she still maintains support among Democrats. The same poll found that 51% of Democrats approved of her, while only 20% of Republicans did. This indicates that Sinema has been able to maintain a bipartisan appeal, which could give her an advantage in a three-way race.
The Impact on Arizona’s Political Landscape
If Sinema decides to run for reelection as an independent, she could reshape Arizona’s political landscape. Her ability to draw both Democratic and Republican voters highlights the growing influence of independent voters in the state.
This could have implications for future elections, as candidates may need to appeal to a broader base of voters in order to be successful. It also raises questions about the viability of a two-party system in a state with a significant independent presence.
Additionally, Sinema’s potential impact on Arizona’s election could have ripple effects on the national stage. If she is able to win reelection as an independent, it could signal a shift in the power dynamics of the Senate and influence how other independent politicians approach their campaigns.
Overall, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s potential impact on Arizona’s election cannot be underestimated. As an independent candidate with bipartisan appeal, she has the ability to draw support from both Democrats and Republicans. This could reshape Arizona’s political landscape and have implications for future elections. As the race unfolds, it will be interesting to see how voters respond to Sinema’s unique position in Arizona’s changing political landscape.
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