Republicans Could Win Big in the 2026 Midterms: Here’s How

The biggest question facing get-out-the-vote organizations like mine is how do Republicans win in November when President Donald Trump is not on the ballot? To answer that question, we went straight to the voters whose votes will determine the midterms in battleground states. Proving the point that while Trump himself is not on the ballot, his policy agenda certainly is.

We’ve spent the last few weeks in focus groups talking to key low-propensity Trump voters and swing voters in the Senate battleground states of Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire. In nearly all of these states, both voting groups must turn out for the Republican candidate if the GOP is to defend and grow the Senate majority.

What connects these groups, we now understand, is a clear, economy-centric message. However, how these voters view “progress” and whether enough is being done varies greatly between both groups, which will require tailored and specific ground game outreach as we seek to build a winning coalition.

What we found is that low-propensity Trump voters continue to be behind Trump’s agenda, and they remain optimistic to support Republican candidates who will continue the progress this administration has made over the past year. They want a functioning Congress that will work collaboratively with Trump — not an obstructionist minority that will waste time with impeachment trials and squander this opportunity to save America.

Both groups of voters believe the Trump administration is still just starting a four-year turn-around for America. They back Trump’s long-term vision for America; a strong nation with secure borders that is an economic and industrial powerhouse — more jobs for Americans and less dependence on adversaries like China. As voters express approval for Trump’s policies, they also acknowledge the continued hardships created by Biden’s long term economic failures: unaffordable housing, stagnant wage growth, and higher prices.

Point blank, these voters repeatedly emphasized that they trust the plan but see additional opportunities for short-term policy wins to make their lives more affordable.

For most Americans, the simplest and best policy really is to let them hold onto more of their own money. Voters were just starting to file their tax returns and had not yet received their refunds but were hopeful it would help offset the price increases of Biden’s presidency. Good news for these voters — as of Feb. 6, the average tax refund was $2,290, an 11% increase over 2025.

Increased home prices and higher rent are a top issue for both groups of voters. A policy proposal that catches perhaps the most attention is one to limit or ban corporate investors from buying single family homes, ensuring families aren’t competing with Wall Street to buy into the American Dream. Voters also appreciated Trump’s innovative ideas, such as allowing Americans to use their retirement accounts to help pay for the down payment of a home — they like the flexibility and that Trump is thinking about immediate fixes.

Voters also listed health care expenses as a top burden. They support TrumpRx and the idea that America should not pay more for prescription drugs than other developed nations. However, much of the pain is felt by healthy families who aren’t purchasing medicines — their pain is the monthly cost of insurance premiums. Voters blamed Obamacare by name and said it has made their health care plans unaffordable. These voters wanted to hear and learn more about Trump’s “Great Healthcare Plan” to replace insurer-based subsidies with direct payments to individuals to purchase their own insurance.

To win in 2026, Republicans need to be laser focused on the economy, what they have already done to reduce costs, and how that puts money back into voters’ pockets. Every candidate needs their own voice and needs to lead the charge on this front. Voters don’t want to go back to the failed policies of Biden and the radical left. Anything short of this could leave Republican candidates disconnected from key voters in close races.

Finally, both low-propensity and swing voters are turned off by the Left’s extremism, and they see a potential third impeachment as anti-democratic and a waste of time. They are tired of Democrats in Washington, D.C. wasting time and spending taxpayer money on waste and fraud. They do not want to see Democrats getting in the way of immigration enforcement or economic progress. And, perhaps even above all else, they continue to be alarmed by the Left’s extreme gender ideology policies.

It is clear to these voters that Trump’s second term has been historic in many ways. From his innovative solutions for the economy, immediate success at the border, to shrinking the unaccountable federal bureaucracy. There is no doubt in voters’ minds that this has been a transformative 13 months for the country. As this administration is doing their part, voters want to see the November candidates promise to do the same. When that happens, we will break the mid-term “majority flip” political tradition, and all of America will be better off.

 Jessica Anderson is the President of Sentinel Action Fund, a conservative Super PAC focused on turning out absentee, early-vote, and “day of” voters.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

(Featured Image Media Credit: Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour)

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