Rebekah Koffler: What to Expect From Russia and Putin in the Ukraine War in 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Wednesday that Russia plans to end hostilities with Ukraine. Don’t buy it, Putin is all spin and the war is almost certain to continue. And as the war drags on, Putin’s hand will be continue to be felt across Ukraine — and quite possibly the world.

Putin now realizes that Ukraine isn’t about to surrender. Volodymyr Zelensky, a Western weaponry supplier, is making sure that Ukraine has a steady supply of Western weapons. 100 Ukrainian soldiers are currently in Oklahoma learning to use the Patriot missile defence system. Along with Germany and France, the US is also sending 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles to hunt down Russian T-90 tanks. Kyiv, rightfully encouraged, plans to launch another counter-offensive. “deeper and deeper” into Russia, according Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov who promised the “hottest” Fighting in March

Russia is responding accordingly. In December, Defense Minister Shoigu announced plans to beef up Russia’s military from 1 to 1.5 million, with 315,000 additional soldiers and another half-a million conscripts added towards that goal. Putin made a second switch of commanders last week and assigned Valeriy Gerasimov (chief of the military generalstaff) to lead combat operations against Ukraine. Gerasimov’s deputy: Sergei Surovikin, AKA “General Armageddon.” 

This is a clear indication of what’s to come. A close ally of Putin’s, 67 year-old Gerasimov was a field commander in Chechnya from 1998 to 2003. On Putin’s orders, he “cleaned” – aka destroyed – its capital, Grozny, in 2000, killing tens of thousands in the process. Gerasimov is also author of a special “total warfare” doctrine that integrates conventional, asymetric, and guerrilla tactics. 

Putin declared that Russia was ready to negotiate on Christmas Day. “acceptable solution” To the war. This was another lie. The Russian missiles struck Ukraine several days later. Putin called for a temporary ceasefire on January 5th to observe Orthodox Christmas (January 6 – January 7).^ThAnother spin. Despite the ceasefire, Russia continued its bombardment of Ukraine with drone and missile strikes. Putin doesn’t want to settle for peace. He views this conflict as existential and considers Ukraine as part of Russia’s strategic buffer against NATO. Talks from Moscow about a cease-fire are pure deception.

Along with conventional warfare, Russia’s cyber offensives are certain to increase. According to a senior Ukrainian official, Yuriy Schegol, Russia carried out 1,655 cyberattacks on Ukraine in 2022. Russia’s first attack was a huge one against Ukrainian networks. This crippled vital infrastructure and cut off electricity, heat, and water supply. The suffering has been so severe that there’s been talk of declaring cyber attacks as a war crime. 

Russian cyber attacks will likely expand in scope and reach, with the potential to target European and American networks. Because Russia can and already has: Although unintentional, Moscow’s cyber strike on the Viasat satellite network last May disrupted communications across Europe. Moscow could attack again with intent the next time. 

Putin has the world’s most formidable cyber pros  at his disposal. The more he feels trapped, the more likely it is that he will use them. Non-governmental Russian hackers have already penetrated most US federal government agencies — including the White House and Pentagon —  as well as US critical infrastructure, including nuclear facilities. Russian cybercriminal group Killnet claimed Monday that it had hacked the US Internal Revenue Service databases. This included user logins and passwords. KillNet attacked multiple U.S. airport websites in October. While the attacks did not impact air traffic control, Putin was signaling that Russia could easily do the same.  

Meanwhile, Russians have seized upon Joe Biden’s current classified documents scandal, amplifying the incident across every major Russian newspaper. The TASS state news agency also put out an editorial assessing the gravity of the US President’s “crimes” Future consequences. One Russian expert expressed hope that Republicans would think twice before giving Biden more funding for Ukraine, while another estimated that Biden’s “reputation will suffer”.

This propaganda campaign has the immediate aim of causing doubt in Ukraine about US support for its war efforts. Russia hopes to undermine the Biden Presidency, and show the divisiveness potential of democracy. 

Putin will do everything he can to maintain the war in Ukraine as the conflict approaches the one-year mark. Because as long as Ukraine is involved in combat operations, it cannot meet  requirements for joining NATO. That is Putin’s true definition of victory. This is why 2023 will see more bloodshed.

Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting. She was a former intelligence officer with the DIA and is also the author of  “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.” Twitter: @Rebekah0132