Polymarket flags dozens of military insider trading cases to DOJ: Report
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, flagged several accounts suspected of insider trading related too U.S. military operations, prompting investigation by the Justice department. These accounts, analyzed by watchdog group Anti-Corruption Data Collective, were categorized as whales, bots, small fish, and orcas, with the orca group showing signs of insider trading by making highly successful bets-earning $8 million with a 97.2% success rate-often created days before placing large wagers. Many such accounts focused on military and geopolitical events, including betting on the war with Iran and operations in Venezuela, where a military member wagered $33,000 and profited over $400,000 after predicting the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The case highlights concerns about military insiders using prediction markets to profit from classified or privileged information, raising bipartisan calls to tighten regulations on government personnel betting on events related to their official duties. Prediction markets are increasingly covering sensitive topics like war and military actions, which raises alarms due to the potential for insider information to influence outcomes before the public is aware.
Prediction market Polymarket flagged dozens of accounts displaying signs of insider trading on military operations to the Justice Department, a move that comes as the company faces scrutiny over traders profiting from bets tied to classified or tightly held U.S. military operations.
The referrals involved accounts later identified by watchdog group Anti-Corruption Data Collective, which analyzed publicly available Polymarket trading data, CNN reported. The referrals were made prior to the watchdog publishing its findings this week.
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The Anti-Corruption Data Collective’s report divides Polymarket users into four groups: whales, bots, small fish, and orcas. Whales spread resources across the platform to dominate markets, bots impersonate whales by working around the clock to identify viable bets, small fish are the everyday traders, and orcas are “highly specialized, incredibly successful bettors.”
The groups found that many of the users dubbed orcas often showed telltale signs of insider trading and identified 152 such accounts betting on military and geopolitical events. Together, the orca accounts earned $8 million and recorded a 97.2% success rate on certain high-stakes wagers, including markets related to the war with Iran. The report noted that many such accounts were created days before placing a longshot bet.
The Washington Examiner reached out to Polymarket and the DOJ for comment.
Concerns about military insiders using prediction markets intensified earlier this year after federal prosecutors charged an active-duty Army soldier with allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket about U.S. operations in Venezuela.
U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, wagered approximately $33,000 between late December 2025 and early January on contracts predicting the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. After the military operation occurred, the bets paid out more than $400,000.
BETTING ON POLITICS: INSIDER TRADING INFILTRATES WAR PLANNING TO SPEECH WRITING
The new referrals suggest the Van Dyke case may not be an isolated event. The issue has also drawn congressional attention as lawmakers have pushed for tighter restrictions on government employees wagering on events related to their official duties.
Prediction markets have rapidly expanded beyond elections and sporting events to include highly specific questions about wars, military strikes, and government actions. That specificity has raised alarms because military personnel, intelligence officials, and contractors have privileged knowledge capable of shifting the value of a contract before the public learns it.
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