Manchin behind GOP rival by large margin in poll.

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice Poses a Threat to Sen. Joe Manchin in Upcoming Election

A recent poll conducted by National Journal suggests that Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) may be in trouble in a potential matchup against his newly declared opponent, West Virginia governor Jim Justice (R.). According to the poll, Justice has the support of 43 percent of likely general election voters to Manchin’s 29 percent. Twenty-eight percent of those polled said they are undecided.

This poll’s release comes a week after Justice, a former Democrat, announced his candidacy, and he is widely seen as the strongest challenger to Manchin. A Morning Consult poll last month found that Justice has more support among Democrats in West Virginia than Manchin. Justice’s overall approval rating in the state is at 66 percent, while Manchin is at just 38 percent.

Justice doesn’t look likely to lose his primary either, despite being relatively new to the Republican Party. Forty-five percent of likely Republican voters said they back Justice, compared with 17 percent who support Rep. Alex Mooney. Thirty-eight percent remain undecided. Justice first ran for governor as a Democrat and beat his Republican opponent in 2016. He then announced his party switch at a rally with then-president Donald Trump in 2017.

Manchin’s Changing Tone on Issues

Manchin’s poor polling may explain why he’s changed his tone on issues. He’s positioning himself as an opponent of President Joe Biden’s high spending—despite putting together Biden’s trillion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act. The Democrat helped negotiate its terms last summer and is considered the bill’s “chief architect.”

Manchin attacked Biden for trying to “liberalize” the act, which spends billions on climate-related issues. Just two months ago, the senator said he did not regret voting for it “at all.”

• Justice has the support of 43 percent of likely general election voters to Manchin’s 29 percent
• Justice’s overall approval rating in the state is at 66 percent, while Manchin is at just 38 percent
• Forty-five percent of likely Republican voters said they back Justice, compared with 17 percent who support Rep. Alex Mooney

It remains to be seen how this election will play out, but it’s clear that Justice poses a significant threat to Manchin’s reelection bid.