Payroll jobs estimate likely to be revised down by 79,000
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the federal government’s estimate of total payroll jobs is likely to be revised downward by 79,000 in an upcoming update. Specifically, private-sector jobs are expected to decrease by 178,000. This preliminary revision indicates that the U.S. labor market has been weaker than previously thought, which could negatively impact President Donald Trump’s economic approval ratings, especially amid ongoing concerns about high inflation and modest job growth. The revision is part of an annual “benchmark” process that adjusts job estimates based on a complete count from the Quarterly Census of Employment and wages. Previous large revisions have been influenced by factors such as pandemic-related response rate drops and the impact of illegal immigration, which affects employment data as illegal workers might potentially be counted in surveys but not in official wage reports. The upcoming revisions follow a year when Trump dismissed the BLS Commissioner after a weak jobs report with significant downward revisions, and a new appointee, Brett matsumoto, has recently taken over the bureau. The detailed assessment highlights ongoing challenges in accurately measuring employment figures.
The federal government’s estimate of the total number of payroll jobs is likely to be revised down by 79,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.
The update, a preliminary notice of forthcoming revisions to the jobs numbers, means that the labor market has been weaker than thought. That is a blow to President Donald Trump, whose economic approval ratings have plummeted in recent months thanks to high inflation, which has been accompanied by modest job growth numbers.
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The number of private-sector jobs will be revised down by 178,000, according to the agency.
Friday’s release from the bureau is a preview of the annual “benchmark” revision it makes to its estimate of payroll jobs, which will be released in February. The benchmark revision is different from revisions to past months’ job numbers, which are regularly included in the monthly jobs reports.
Instead, it is part of an annual process for adjusting the estimates of payroll jobs, which are based on the monthly survey of establishments. The BLS rebenchmarks those numbers against a comprehensive count of jobs from the BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a quarterly assessment of employment and wages reported by employers that covers more than 95% of U.S. jobs.
Recent years have seen large revisions due to two unusual factors.
One is a drop in response rates, driven partly by the pandemic.
The other is the distortions created by the influx of illegal immigrants during former President Joe Biden’s tenure. Illegal immigrant workers might be counted in the survey of establishments, but not in the QCEW.
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Last year, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a weak jobs report that showed major downward revisions, calling it “rigged.”
Trump appointee Brett Matsumoto took over at the bureau earlier this month.
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