Leaders must sell debt limit deal to unhappy Congress.

Biden and McCarthy Reach Tentative Debt Ceiling Deal

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) accomplished the difficult task of reaching a tentative agreement to avert a debt default over the weekend. Now comes a much harder challenge: selling the deal to their respective sides.

Negotiators reached a tentative agreement on Saturday evening that would raise the debt ceiling for two years, roll back non-defense discretionary spending to Fiscal Year 2022 levels, and cap top-line federal spending to one-percent annual growth over the next six years. The deal was swiftly criticized by progressives and hard-line conservatives, with the former claiming the cuts were too severe while the latter argues the cuts were insufficient.

The Debt Ceiling and the Need for a Deal

The debt ceiling, or the highest amount the federal government can borrow, will either need to be raised or abolished early next month to avert a default. Economists have long warned that such a default would wreak havoc on the economy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States will be unable to pay its bills by June 5.

The Challenge of Passing the Deal

McCarthy needs 218 votes to pass the bill, dubbed the “Fiscal Responsibility Act,” through the House. Republicans hold a 222-213 majority in the chamber, meaning he can only afford four defections. Given that far more than four GOP lawmakers have already voiced their opposition to the deal, he’ll need House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to whip enough Democratic votes to push the bill across the finish line.

Opposition to the Deal

“It’s not done yet,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), the top Democrat on the powerful House Intelligence Committee. “And all you need to do is check the social media of the Freedom Caucus, who were just obliterating this deal.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said Sunday on MSNBC, “My worry is, there may still not be enough Republicans in the House to get this deal done.”

The Senate’s Role

Once the bill reaches the Senate, Schumer and McConnell will need to pull together 60 votes to bypass the filibuster threshold required to pass most legislation in the chamber. While progressives in the Senate have been quiet thus far on how they plan to vote on the Biden-McCarthy deal, a number of GOP members have vocally condemned the package for lacking adequate spending cuts and said they intend to oppose it.

The Final Vote

Given Democrats 51-49 majority in the 100-member body, both sides can only afford just under 20 defections each if the bill is going to pass with 60 votes. That tight split also gives each member the ability to act as a protest vote and derail any legislative effort, though the stakes involved in letting this particular deal fail are high enough that many of those opposed could be convinced to fall in line. While no senator could completely kill a piece of legislation on their own, they do have the ability to slow down the process by as much as a week. That delay would push lawmakers past the June 5 “X-date.”

The Concerns of Senate Republicans

A number of Senate Republicans expressed concern after a Sunday evening call over the deal’s caps on top-line defense spending, which critics warn are too low to keep up with the rate of inflation. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) went public with his discontent over the defense spending matter, telling Fox News that he would not allow the June 5 “X-date” to stop him from getting that provision changed.

The Final Push

Schumer said in a letter to Democratic members on Sunday that the Senate would vote on the bill as soon as possible, telling his caucus to prepare for a possible vote as soon as this Friday that could carry into the weekend.

The fate of the debt ceiling deal remains uncertain, but both sides are pushing hard to get it passed. Stay tuned for updates.

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