Panicking Virginia Democrats Now Think Their Gerrymander Will Fail in Court, Triggering Infighting: Report
Virginia Democrats narrowly passed a redistricting plan after a referendum, but some party figures believe it is indeed likely to be rejected in court, with legal approval chances described as “less than 50%.” A former Democratic strategist, dan Turrentine, claimed that court certification may not proceed and that the governor’s staff has been challenging legislative leaders over the plan’s legal prospects.
the article says the referendum moved forward despite major judicial scrutiny. A lower court had blocked the proposal for procedural and language issues, and the state Supreme Court allowed the vote to proceed while still signaling continued review. After the April 21 vote-approved by a margin of under 100,000 in a turnout of more than three million-the plan could substantially reshape Virginia’s U.S. House portrayal for Democrats.
Though, the courts raised further concerns, including ruling referendum votes “ineffective” and denying Democrats an urgent request to stay an injunction against certification. the situation is framed as part of a broader national redistricting struggle, occurring after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated race-based gerrymandering while leaving political gerrymandering unresolved.
Virginia Democrats won a narrow victory that could turn into a black eye for the party.
In a clip posted to the social media platform X, former Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine reported that leading Democrats in the Old Dominion believe their redistricting plan, approved by voters last month, will not survive in court.
“What I was told is they now think it’s less than 50 percent that the court will let the certification go through,” Turrentine said in a clip posted to the social media platform X.
“The time, they don’t believe, is on their side,” he added moments later. “And what apparently transpired over the weekend — and this person would know; they’re in contact with the people I’m about to say — is that the governor’s staff is now snipping at the Senate majority leader and House Speaker that they warned them last fall this would not pass legal review.”
Turrentine made those comments on “The Huddle” podcast, which he co-hosts with journalist Rachael Bade and former White House press secretary Sean Spicer.
In other words, Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s office doubted the legality of Democrats’ redistricting plan. But Democrats in the General Assembly went forward with it anyway.
.@danturrentine Dems VA redistricting worries: “What I was told yesterday is that they now think it’s less than 50% that the court will let the certification go through. The Governor’s staff is now snipping at the Sen Maj and House Speaker that they warned them last fall this… pic.twitter.com/bxfY0mvBIC
— The Huddle (@theDChuddle) May 5, 2026
Virginia’s April 21 referendum took place despite serious judicial scrutiny.
Earlier this year, for instance, a Tazewell County judge blocked the redistricting proposal, citing problems with procedure and language. The Virginia Supreme Court then permitted the referendum but signaled that it likely would review the redistricting plan, no matter the vote’s outcome.
Last month, more than three million Virginians went to the polls. Buoyed by affluent voters in northern Virginia’s Washington D.C., suburbs, the referendum passed by less than 100,000 votes.
If allowed to stand, the redistricting plan could give Virginia Democrats a 10:1 edge in the state’s U.S. House delegation. That advantage currently stands at 6:5.
Courts, however, have not viewed the plan favorably.
For instance, the same Tazewell County judge immediately ruled the referendum’s votes “ineffective.”
Then, the Virginia Supreme Court denied Democrats’ urgent request to stay the lower court’s injunction against certification.
The drama in Virginia has unfolded against the backdrop of a nationwide battle over redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court invalidated the practice of racial gerrymandering. By a 6-3 majority, SCOTUS ruled that the 1965 Voting Rights Act does not require or authorize states to draw congressional districts with race-based outcomes in mind, but in fact prohibits the practice.
SCOTUS, however, has not invalidated the general practice of political gerrymandering as seen in Virginia and elsewhere.
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